PGA Betting Guide for the WGC-Mexico Championship
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the WGC-Mexico Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
Like last week, we have a very strong field at an event that historically sees big-time names at the top of the leaderboard. We only have three years of data, but each installment so far has been won by a future Hall of Famer, and the podium has featured class in each year.
We don't want to overthink things, but with some major odds discrepancies between the top and bottom of the market despite this being a short field event (72 participants) with no cut, we have to consider some of our longer shots as potential party crashers.
For more info on Club de Golf Chapultepec, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Jon Rahm (+1000) - Rahm gets the nod at nearly double the price of both favorites -- Rory McIlroy (+500) and Dustin Johnson (+600). The two at the top finished a mile ahead of the field last year, but Rahm is lurking and has been superior in every way to Johnson over the past six months. DJ was battling an injury for most of that stretch, and with two wins and a T7 in three trips to Chapultepec, he is a tough fade. But we'll favor Rahm, who since last June has three wins, three runner ups, and just one worldwide finish outside the top 20.
Xander Schauffele (+1800) - A slow start last week kept Xander out of the potential championship mix at Riviera, but he grew stronger as the week went on and ultimately closed with back-to-back 69's to finish T23. We know he is a short course and strong field specialist, and unlike others in this range, he actually gets the job done occasionally. Xander is priced at the same number as Tommy Fleetwood, he of the zero career PGA Tour wins, and just a hair ahead of Hideki Matsuyama (+2000), who hasn't won since 2017 despite some strong finishes of late. Schauffele, meanwhile, has three wins since then to go along with plenty of close calls of his own.
Value Spots
Matt Kuchar (+4100) - Kuchar has one of those reputations for not closing, and last week's runner up finish where he held the 18-, 36-, and 54-hole leads will certainly hammer home that narrative and price him farther back than he should be. He, in fact, did get a win earlier this year in Singapore, and he is prone to hot stretches where he consistently contends. After winning in Mexico at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in 2018, he carried solid form through the first half of 2019 until the wheels came off a bit after traveling overseas for Open Championship prep. With a win five weeks ago, T16 in Phoenix, and T2 at Riviera, he will be a name to watch every week as the market underrates him.
Patrick Reed (+4100) - We catch Reed at a point where his (un)popularity plainly affects his Vegas odds, and we are happy to take the discount for a golfer who can gain in all facets when cooking. He will have to impress all season to find his way onto the Ryder Cup in a loaded American player pool, and a big-money win against an international field would make a huge statement. His reputation is getting dragged again heading into this week, and it would be just like Reed to embrace the hate and pick up another trophy. He's improved his form each year at Chapultepec, starting with a T61 in 2017, improving to T37 in 2018, and finally T14 last year.
Long Shots
Brandt Snedeker (+7000) - Since it seems like we live in bizarro world with Snedeker sometimes, it would be just like him to flop at Pebble Beach and then ball out in a loaded field with no one talking about him. He was a sneaky T7 in his only appearance since the event moved to Mexico, and that week gained in all four strokes gained metrics. He's lost strokes putting in consecutive events, a rarity for Sneds, and in his last chance on poa annua before heading to Florida.
Justin Harding (+26000) - With most of our card targeting quality players who are underpriced in the market, we finish with one major bomb of a pick in Harding. He has the driving and short game to manage a T12 at Augusta last year, and while he is nowhere close to his lead-in form from back then he still has some spike weeks to monitor. These odds are bonkers for a 72-man field, and he can also be had for a lovely price on a Top 10 Finish (+1900).
