European Tour Betting Preview: Qatar Masters
This week, the European Tour stays in the middle east for the Qatar Masters. This event is being played at a new course this year -- after being played at the Doha Golf Club since its inception back in 1998 -- so course/tournament history will not be valuable this week.
Course Info
Course: Education City Golf Course
Yardage: 7,307 Yards
Par: 71
Recent Winners*: Justin Harding -13 (2019), Eddie Pepperell -18 (2018), Wang Jeung-hun -16 (2017)
*None of these winners won at this week’s course
As mentioned above, this is the first year this event will be played at this course, so we don’t have a great idea of how it’ll play. There are only three par 5s on the course, so players who do the majority of their scoring on par 5s may struggle with fewer opportunities. The par 3s are fairly long, with three of them playing over 200 yards. The course is another desert-style track like we had last week in Oman. It will once again be fairly open off the tee, so bigger hitters should be able to take advantage of that. There is some water, but it doesn’t appear to be as prevalent as last week’s venue.
Field
The field this week is headlined by Eddie Pepperell, who is a former winner of this event when it was played at Doha Golf Club. Robert Macintyre, Matthias Schwab, and Mike Lorenzo-Vera all make their return to the European Tour this week after playing the WGC event in Mexico City a couple weeks ago. Last year’s champion Justin Harding is in the field looking to regain form after a few months of poor play. Martin Kaymer and Thomas Pieters are the betting favorites at +1400 and +1600, respectively.
Picks
Thomas Pieters - Pieters missed the cut last week, but it was largely due to poor play on the greens. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach last week at nearly three per round. That was in only two rounds, but that is a staggering stat for a player who missed the cut. Coming to a new course with no history, it can be a safe bet to lean on players who have been hitting their irons well, as iron-play travels everywhere. If he had made the cut last week and finished in the top-10 or 20, I think he'd be the favorite this week -- I think this is a good spot of value coming off the MC.
Bet: To Win (+1600)
Guido Miggliozi - Guido finished T4 last week in Oman and drove the ball great for the week, but struggled with the irons, which is not something that usually holds Guido back. If the iron play can return to his usual form, and he continues driving it well off the tee, he should find himself in the mix again at a similar course this week. We’ve seen Guido showcase the ability to win tournaments last year, with two victories in his rookie campaign. In these events with weaker fields, I think Guido is always worth a look, and I love the form.
Bet: To Win (+5000)
Lorenzo Gagli - Gagli played very well at last week’s event, finishing 10th. He is a great iron player, which should suit him well on a course with an extra par 4. He’s made three straight cuts, and as a longer odds option, I like to see some consistency. I don’t think he quite has the winning upside, but definitely could see him having another high finish.
Bet: Top-10 (+1400), Top-20 (+600)
Nicolai Hojgaard - The other Hojgaard (Rasmus) continued outperforming his brother last week with a T6 in Oman. Nicolai made the cut and hit the ball well off the tee, but struggled with scrambling, which held him back. Scrambling can vary greatly week-to-week, and if he has some better luck around the greens this week, he could pop up near the top of the leaderboard once again. He is extremely talented and will pop a few times this year -- I see no reason this can’t be one of those weeks.
Bet: To Win (+21000), Top-20 (+1400)
