PGA Betting Guide for the Memorial Tournament
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Memorial Tournament based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
After seeing a loaded leaderboard last week come down to the finish, Muirfield Village welcomes an even better field this week for the Memorial. This truly has the feel of a major championship. Of the top 70 players in the Official World Golf Ranking, just eight are not teeing it up. Muirfield brings out the best, and as we scroll down the board we find it easy to avoid the temptation of the juicy long odds in favor of a more straightforward card this week.
The occasional oddball has won here -- Jason Dufner in 2017, William McGirt in 2016, and David Lingmerth in 2015 -- but given the field this week we'll lean on the name brands and take our lumps if a rando manages to dethrone almost all of the world's top players.
For more info on Muirfield Village Golf Club, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Jon Rahm (+2200) - In a field like this, the fastest way to find value is to scroll down the board and pick the name at the bottom of everyone under 25/1. That name this week is Rahm, who was the second or third favorite in his first couple events post-COVID layoff and now sits at the seventh shortest odds. Those eyeing only the finishing position will see MC, T33, T37, and T27 coming into this week, but won't notice that Rahm shot the round of the day on Sunday at the Workday. His 64 saw him dominate the par 5s with an eagle and three birdies. If he has a good line on those holes coming into the Memorial, he'll be in the mix come Sunday afternoon.
Webb Simpson (+2500) - Simpson is already a two-time winner this season, and three victories in a six-month span would be an outrageous result for a guy who had just one win in the prior seven years. But still, we come back to Webb, whose combination of tee-to-green excellence and, unlike some of his comrades in this range, a legit positive on the greens, there's no reason to think he can't win just about any time he tees it up. He slides under the radar because he does not overpower courses the way some of the biggest stars do, so we'll happily take the discount. With top 10s in seven of his last nine starts and just five finishes worse than T20 in the past year, he is worth a plus-money bet for a Top 10 Finish (+230) and a Top 20 Finish (+105).
Value Spots
Xander Schauffele (+3100) - Basically, an auto-bet when longer than 30/1 at this point, Schauffele has been knocking on the door without quite breaking it down the way Simpson has. Webb had four runner up finishes in the calendar year 2019 before winning twice in 2020, while Xander had three second places and a third in 2019 before also finishing T2 at the Tournament of Champions to start 2020. Over 72 holes, the difference between first and second place is often one decision, one errant tee shot, one misread. Schauffele is primed for a strong finish and we all know how he likes to show out in the strongest fields.
Daniel Berger (+4000) - Despite recent results every bit as good as anyone in the world, Berger comes off at a very attractive number this week. While Bryson DeChambeau (+1000) is currently riding a streak of seven straight top 10s, including a win, Berger is actually right behind him with five straight top 10s and a win. DeChambeau is doing things with the driver right now that we've never seen, but to find Berger at four times the odds is just jarring considering Berger has outgained Bryson on approaches over the past 24 rounds (per Fantasy National Golf Club). This won't last forever, but Berger can get his money's worthwhile it does. So can we.
Long Shots
Tony Finau (+5500) - As we scroll down the board to see which golfers have legitimate major championship-winning upside that our picks are going to need, we (perhaps ironically) stop at the man who "can't win" in Finau. He is unquestionably among the game's elite despite his (mostly) bare trophy case, and many of his best finishes are in the strongest fields. This certainly fits the bill.
