PGA Betting Guide for The Masters
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for The Masters based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
Betting on the Masters should be straightforward. The leaderboard is littered with the top talent in the world year in and year out. The best golfers in the world hit it a mile, and the course offers few penalties for pulling driver with reckless abandon. And the back of the field has a close to zero percent chance of contending.
But still, the list of elite golfers without a green jacket is long, and before Tiger Woods' tremendous win last year, the three prior winners weren't exactly favorites. Patrick Reed was available as high as 50/1 in 2018, Sergio Garcia was about 30/1 the year before, and Danny Willett longer than both at 66/1 in 2016. We may be overdue for one of the top dogs to don the green jacket, and surely the opportunity to have Woods slip it on will make this one that much sweeter. But there are chances out there and plenty of value further down the board.
This article will cover outright bets, and specials and prop bets will be covered separately.
For more info on Augusta National Golf Club, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Jon Rahm (+950) - You really can't go wrong with any of the top guys, but we'll follow Rahm's trajectory as he searches for his first career major championship at a track where he seems poised to break through. His finishes in order of appearance are T27, 4th, and T9. He's won at two of our top comparison courses in Torrey Pines and Muirfield Village, and unlike many of the other names at the top of the market, his best golf is still ahead of him. He's not sneaking up on anybody at 19/2, but of the elite golfers in the field, we'll put our weight behind 26-year-old Spaniard.
Brooks Koepka (+1600) - Woods' victory the last time we came to Augusta will be seared into the memories of golf fans for years to come, but few will recall Koepka's missed birdie putt on his 72nd hole that would have put a ton more pressure on Tiger as he closed out his round. Koepka was the 36-hole leader in 2019 and at his absolute pinnacle -- he bracketed the runner up at The Masters with wins at the last fall PGA Championships in August 2018 and May 2019. Had he won three straight majors along with his consecutive U.S. Opens, we'd likely hold him in even higher esteem than we do. A knee injury has thrown into question exactly what his future looks like, but a T5 in Houston gives us confidence that Koepka is back in form. He's been leapfrogged by quite a few elite golfers over the past year, and he'd like nothing more than to reassert himself as the ultimate alpha on Tour this week.
Value Spots
Tony Finau (+3200) - Finau has managed top-10s in each of his first two trips to Augusta National, and while his lack of winning upside is noted everywhere, his record in majors is strong enough to at least give us hope that he stands a chance to break through even on the biggest of stages. He has 7 top-10s in his last 10 majors, including a T8 at Winged Foot and T4 at TPC Harding Park earlier this year. He was also top-10 at both Torrey Pines and Muirfield Village in 2020. He can hit it a mile, the current form and course fit match up...why not Tony?
Jason Day (+4000) - Day ripped off a stretch of four straight top-10s this summer, including two shots at Muirfield Village, a WGC event, and a major. He's a former winner at Torrey Pines as well, and while he doesn't have a green jacket yet, he has never finished outside the top-30 aside from a withdrawal in 2012. His last performance at Augusta was his third top-five here, and only a Saturday 73 held him back from an even better result. He has arguably the best short game in the world, and he should be more comfortable on these greens than just about anyone in the field.
Long Shots
Adam Scott (+5000) - Scott played it slow coming back from the COVID layoff, teeing it up for the first time in five months at the PGA Championship. His caution proved to be well-founded, as he tested positive for the coronavirus and missed more time in the lead up to Augusta before returning last week in Houston. While he hasn't bested his T22 finish at TPC Harding Park in any of his four events since, he did strike it well in Texas and gained 3.9 strokes via approaches. It seems like forever ago, but it was just nine months ago that won his second consecutive event -- first the Australian PGA Championship at the end of 2019 and then the Genesis Invitational eight weeks later. Scott has made 10 consecutive cuts at Augusta -- the most in the field -- including a win, a runner up, and five other top-20 finishes.
Louis Oosthuizen (+6500) - Oosthuizen is a couple of breaks away from a handful of major championships to his name, with runner-up finishes in all four to go along with his 2010 victory at The Open Championship. Instead, he's somehow winless in the United States for his career, an aberration for a golfer who has ranked inside the top-50 in the Official World Golf Rankings every year for the past decade. His form is in good shape, having placed third at the U.S. Open and gained strokes with his approaches in seven straight before a dud at THE CJ CUP. The South African has posted solid tee to green numbers since July and has had a few outlier putting rounds, with five events where he gained over 5.0 strokes putting since February.
