PGA Betting Guide for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
Two in a row! After nailing Patrick Reed at the Farmers Insurance Championship and Brooks Koepka at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, we'll try our hand at Pebble Beach this week to keep the gravy train chugging along. One of the weakest fields in this event's history will tee it up this week, with no player in the Top 10 in the Official World Golf Ranking in the field and some truly eye-popping numbers next to names that we're accustomed to seeing much longer.
We'll target the clear favorite at the top and do our best to look for value on this board. This event has seen its fair share of long-shot winners, though some of the variance is mitigated with the course rotation down to just two and no pro-am as part of the week's festivities. In all this is a hard one to peg, and we may end up seeing a winner at an egregiously short price that we miss out on searching for better bets, but that's something we can live with. Backing middling golfers at inflated prices is a recipe for disaster long term. This would be a good week to reserve some capital for mid-tournament wagers and see if a play becomes available after a slow start at a much better number.
For more info on Pebble Beach GL and Spyglass Hill GC, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Patrick Cantlay (+750) - We hardly ever advocate for a single-digit favorite in this space, least of all in a full field and rarer still when he's not one of the top dogs. Cantlay has just been too hot to ignore of late, and in this field, he may well bully his way to a podium finish on pure class alone. He's a great candidate to pick up if he's far back heading into the weekend, as he fired rounds of 65 and 61 at the Stadium Course to finish second at the American Express last time out. Likewise, in his win at the ZOZO championship, he fired the second-best round of the final day to win by a single stroke.
Value Spots
Phil Mickelson (+4700) - Given Phil's record at Pebble and the lack of real options in this midrange, he has to be considered. Even in his late-career swoon, he's managed to throw up good finishes at this event, and you know he is eying up this field and thinking this may be one of his last real shots to lift a non-Champions Tour trophy. He's not going to be plugging away in peak summer in Minnesota or Michigan, and the distance gap between him and the young guns will be even more apparent on the behemoth courses to come. If you truly think he's toast at this level then feel free to fade him and take decent money for him To Miss the Cut (+144). But I'll be rooting for him to prove everyone wrong just one more time.
Rickie Fowler (+4800) - Speaking of rooting for someone we probably shouldn't anymore, Fowler in the back end of this range is at least somewhat intriguing when compared to others at higher price points. One good week plus a little course history puts Jordan Spieth (+2300) at half this price, but Fowler is by far the better value at almost 50/1. He's had a few miserable putting performances in a row, losing 3.8 and 3.7 strokes the last two weeks just on the greens. He's due for some positive regression with the short stick, and like Koepka last week, we are eying the overall talent at this price and taking advantage of this opportunity.
Long Shots
James Hahn (+7500) - Hahn faded on Sunday in Phoenix after holding the lead heading into the back nine, but he still managed to shoot four straight rounds in the 60s and finish in 10th place. We saw him string together a few strong finishes in a row during the swing season, and against a weak field, he'll have a chance to go on another run.
Brandt Snedeker (+9000) - A two-time winner here who has some pedigree as a former FedEx Cup Champion, Sneds stands out in this range for his putting prowess on poa greens and streaky scoring ability. Like Fowler and Mickelson, his best days are behind him, but with a void of talent at the top of the market this week, it's worth betting on a golfer we know can get there.
