PGA Betting Guide for the Wells Fargo Championship
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Wells Fargo Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
BOOOOOOOOOM!! That's the sound of our 70/1 winner Sam Burns hitting for a huge return on investment at the Valspar Championship. Last week, we went with a favorite-heavy approach and happened to nail one of just two picks longer than +3100. That sounds like luck and we'd never claim luck plays no part in this game, but a good process is all about finding the right values. Burns had been playing well for a long time before a short, recent spell that inflated his odds to the point that we couldn't pass him up.
The other reason he was so long is because so much win equity was soaked up at the top of the board. We have a similar situation this week, where 10 of the top 15 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking descend upon Charlotte, North Carolina. The numbers are skewed heavily toward the top of the board, and that means the middle class is slightly overpriced to avoid a huge gap that ought to be there.
What we need this week are the big bombers, and distance will be a key theme for most of our card. Of course, lights-out approach play will win the day, but driving is the most predictable week-to-week stat. Aside from one name that is basically an auto-bet at his number and win equity, we'll fall back on distance and build our card around similar golfers.
For more info on Quail Hollow Club along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Bryson DeChambeau (+1500) - Our headliner should be no surprise given our preference this week, as no one hits the ball further than DeChambeau. We've seen him blitz fields in both difficult and easy conditions, and with 3 wins in his last 17 worldwide stroke play starts, there is little reason for him to be a few points behind Jon Rahm (+1000) and Justin Thomas (+1100). Thomas would be preferred among the top two, but at 15/1 with DeChambeau's strike rate, we'll gladly load up on Bryson at a track that should play to his strengths.
Rory McIlroy (+1700) - (Ducks). You'd be forgiven if you roll your eyes at the sight of the now World No. 15 golfer. But we all know Rory is going to win again, and if we are looking for another play among the favorites, it is hard to pass on McIlroy, the 2015 Wells Fargo champion who has just one finish outside the top 10 -- a T16 in 2018 -- at this event. Even for his "struggles" of late, McIlroy has maintained elite driving, as he ranks third on the entire Tour, a few yards behind DeChambeau and just a hair behind Cameron Champ. He had top 10s in each of his two events before consecutive missed cuts at TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National, and a few weeks off was just what the doctor ordered.
Value Spots
Will Zalatoris (+2900) - Willy Z is on the cusp of greatness, and while his ascent has been well-documented among the die-hards, a runner-up at The Masters surely brought him into the mainstream. Zalatoris is now 20th on Tour in driving distance, and unlike some of our other bombers, he's also lights out with his irons and ranks 4th in strokes gained: approach for the season. Now the 28th ranked player in the world and still -- STILL! -- not a card-carrying PGA Tour member, the only way for him to earn his way into the FedEx Cup Playoffs is by winning. He's been so good for so long that a T42 at his first trip to the tricky Harbour Town is considered a disappointing result. We'll grab him on the rebound and love a plus-money bet on a Top 20 Finish (+115).
Patrick Reed (+3100) - So let's get this straight -- the World No. 7 is more than double the odds of the World No. 5 and triple the World No. 3, and is also longer than golfers ranked 9th, 11th, 12th, 15th, and 28th? Reed has a solid record at Quail Hollow, with made cuts in each of the last six editions of the Wells Fargo held here and was runner up at the 2017 PGA Championship held here. He has wins at two correlated courses in Torrey Pines and Augusta National, and he...you know...actually wins golf tournaments. His missed cut at the Valspar Championship will not cause even a moment's hesitation considering he won the Farmers Insurance Open on the back of a missed cut earlier this year.
Long Shots
Bubba Watson (+6500) - Watson is an up and down player, but one thing that never changes is that he drives the ball well. He's 14th in strokes gained: off the tee. He's 40th in distance this year but has been inside the top 10 each of the past three seasons, and a few events where he can let loose should boost that ranking. He's trending in the right direction with finishes of T26 at The Masters and T13 at the Valspar, and with a limited record at Quail Hollow, we get Watson at a great number this week.
Cameron Davis (+13000) - We'll round out a card with a long shot in the vein of the defending champion Max Homa (+3100). Homa was ranked outside the top 100 when he arrived at Quail Hollow in May 2019, having found a T26 in Phoenix, a T10 at Pebble Beach, and a T20 at PGA National a few months earlier. Those were his only finishes inside the top 30 in almost four years at that point. Davis sports better long term form, a shared spike in February with solid finishes in California, and a T33 at the Honda Classic that would have been better but for a Sunday 73. Throw in the Aussie wave this spring and a solid driving game -- Davis is 10th on Tour in strokes gained: off the tee and 12th in distance this season -- and you have a great recipe for a long shot.
