Gdula's Golf Simulations: PGA Championship
Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.
We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.
The Process
Over the years, I have made plenty of tweaks to my original golf model, which uses a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers to adjust each golfer's score relative to the field (on the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour).
The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours. From there, a golfer's adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing out the event thousands of times.
In addition to that long-term adjusted form, I factor in course-level adjustments for course fit.
I run a second model that uses more granular strokes gained data, which allows me to very easily adjust for course fit. The results are averaged out.
I let the data do the talking and don't make many tweaks -- if any. Golfers with a small sample get regressed to a low-end PGA Tour player to round out their samples. Data points are weighted more heavily toward recent performance.
Here are the most likely winners for the PGA Championship, according to the models.
| Golfer | Simulated Win% |
Simulated Top-10% |
Simulated Made Cut% |
FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | 5.3% | 31.2% | 81.4% | +1400 |
| Xander Schauffele | 4.6% | 28.1% | 80.3% | +2000 |
| Dustin Johnson | 4.5% | 25.8% | 78.3% | +1700 |
| Justin Thomas | 4.0% | 26.2% | 78.9% | +1500 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 3.7% | 24.2% | 77.0% | +1500 |
| Viktor Hovland | 3.6% | 24.4% | 77.6% | +2200 |
| Daniel Berger | 3.4% | 25.1% | 78.2% | +3000 |
| Webb Simpson | 3.0% | 21.9% | 76.1% | +3700 |
| Rory McIlroy | 2.8% | 19.9% | 72.9% | +1100 |
| Tony Finau | 2.5% | 18.4% | 73.0% | +4000 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 2.4% | 18.3% | 72.5% | +4600 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 2.2% | 18.3% | 72.9% | +8000 |
| Patrick Reed | 2.2% | 18.4% | 73.1% | +3600 |
| Abraham Ancer | 1.9% | 17.7% | 72.1% | +4500 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 1.9% | 17.1% | 71.4% | +3800 |
| Collin Morikawa | 1.9% | 17.3% | 71.6% | +2800 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 1.6% | 16.1% | 70.8% | +4500 |
| Corey Conners | 1.6% | 17.3% | 72.0% | +7500 |
| Cameron Smith | 1.6% | 14.2% | 68.7% | +3700 |
| Jordan Spieth | 1.5% | 14.0% | 67.7% | +1400 |
| Brooks Koepka | 1.5% | 13.7% | 67.8% | +3700 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1.5% | 14.3% | 68.3% | +3300 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 1.5% | 15.4% | 70.1% | +7500 |
| Will Zalatoris | 1.5% | 14.6% | 69.0% | +6000 |
| Paul Casey | 1.4% | 13.9% | 68.0% | +5500 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 1.3% | 12.5% | 66.7% | +8000 |
| Harris English | 1.2% | 11.6% | 65.1% | +14000 |
| Brian Harman | 1.1% | 13.0% | 67.7% | +9000 |
| Cameron Tringale | 1.1% | 11.7% | 65.6% | +18000 |
| Jason Kokrak | 0.9% | 11.0% | 64.6% | +15000 |
| Sungjae Im | 0.9% | 9.7% | 62.8% | +7500 |
| Russell Henley | 0.9% | 11.5% | 65.1% | +22000 |
| Ryan Palmer | 0.9% | 9.2% | 61.6% | +18000 |
| Sam Burns | 0.8% | 9.7% | 61.3% | +4500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 0.8% | 8.6% | 60.7% | +5500 |
| Billy Horschel | 0.8% | 9.3% | 62.0% | +16000 |
| Charley Hoffman | 0.8% | 9.5% | 61.4% | +22000 |
| Sergio Garcia | 0.7% | 9.6% | 62.2% | +11000 |
| Brendon Todd | 0.7% | 7.7% | 58.9% | +28000 |
| Jason Day | 0.7% | 8.5% | 60.8% | +11000 |
| Bubba Watson | 0.7% | 8.9% | 61.1% | +10000 |
| Keegan Bradley | 0.7% | 9.4% | 61.7% | +8000 |
| Siwoo Kim | 0.7% | 9.5% | 62.0% | +8500 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 0.6% | 8.6% | 60.0% | +15000 |
| Chris Kirk | 0.6% | 8.3% | 60.1% | +19000 |
| Kevin Kisner | 0.6% | 6.7% | 56.4% | +28000 |
| Adam Scott | 0.6% | 6.6% | 55.8% | +10000 |
| Max Homa | 0.6% | 7.2% | 57.3% | +15000 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 0.6% | 7.6% | 59.2% | +22000 |
With such a loaded field here for the PGA Championship, win odds get spread out a lot, even at the top.
My model is just not there yet on Rory McIlroy (+1100 on FanDuel Sportsbook) and Jordan Spieth (+1400) just because of their long-term form.
I like Dustin Johnson (+1700), as he has a South Carolina angle here and plays Pete Dye courses well in his career. I'm leaning toward him at the top of the betting board.
Of note, Xander Schauffele is actually the best golfer in the world over the past year when adjusting for field strength and recency. I will always bet him at majors.
Some of the best betting values on the board include Matt Fitzpatrick (+8000), Webb Simpson (+3700), Corey Conners (+7500), Tyrrell Hatton (+4600), Daniel Berger (+3000), Joaquin Niemann (+7500), and Tony Finau (+4000).
Johnson, Schauffele, Fitzpatrick, and Berger are on my card, and I've added boatload of first-round matchup bets.
First-Round Matchup Bets:
Bubba Watson over Henrik Stenson, Danny Willett
Daniel Berger over Billy Horschel, Steve Stricker
Talor Gooch over Harry Higgs, Ben Polland
Kyoung-Hoon Lee over Greg Koch, Dean Burmester
