PGA Betting Guide for the PGA Championship
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the PGA Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
The PGA Championship is once again the fourth major of the season this year, it just so happens that we'll get two more over the summer! Not exactly Glory's Last Chance, but we have one of the strongest fields of the year on tap and the intimidating Kiawah Island awaits.
As is the case with most major championships, you really do need to be a cut above the rest of the Tour to win. The PGA is the one major that's turned out a few oddballs over the years, but by and large, we are looking for top-tier talent and a proven ability to seal the deal. Over the past decade, the victor had banked a PGA Tour win earlier in the season in all but two instances -- Jimmy Walker in 2016 and Jason Dufner in 2013. As the great Mike Singletary once said, "I WANT WINNERS!"
For more info on the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Justin Thomas (+1600) - Leading our card is Thomas, one of the best approach and around the green players in the world who really just needs to putt around field average to be in serious contention. We backed him for THE PLAYERS Championship two events out from a ghastly putting performance at Riviera, and recently, he managed to lose even more strokes putting at the Valspar Championship than he had at the Genesis Invitational. It's a similar cadence on his schedule as well, having played the week after putting poorly and then taking a week off. He's not quite the driver that the others in the top tier are, but as he showed at Quail Hollow, he can hold his own even on the longest courses.
Dustin Johnson (+1800) - We need not doubt length when it comes to Johnson, but certainly he arrives at Kiawah Island with a few question marks. We'll take advantage of the fact that those red flags are baked into his price and pick up the No. 1 player in the world at 18/1 in his home state. We aren't concerned about his early-week withdrawal from the AT&T Byron Nelson, a decision likely tied as much to his fit and feel for a rain-soaked week in Texas as it was to an ailing limb. Nor do we worry much about immediate form with DJ, who has a reputation for being laid back but in truth is one of the more singularly focused players on Tour. He is eyes forward, head straight into whatever comes next, and whether he won or missed the cut the last time out is of no concern. On the back of a similar string of duds, he dominated TPC River Highlands to kick off a monster stretch in the fall.
Value Spots
Daniel Berger (+3000) - Our next spot was a tough call between Berger and the current owner of the Wanamaker Trophy, Collin Morikawa (+3000). Both have multiple wins in the past year, and for this season, each picked up a victory within the last few months, Berger at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am and Morikawa at the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession. Berger gets the nod here with the extra motivation of looking for that truly top-tier marquee win amidst the best stretch of his career. The field was loaded at the Charles Schwab Invitational coming out of the COVID layoff, but it was one of the weakest fields ever at Pebble Beach. Meanwhile, Morikawa slayed Thomas in a playoff to win at Muirfield Village and then added a major and a World Golf Championships event. Berger has a chip on his shoulder and thinks of himself as among the very best in the world -- this is his week to prove it.
Brooks Koepka (+4500) - Speaking of golfers who fancy their place amongst their peers! Koepka arrives a few weeks post-surgery and on the heels of missed cuts at The Masters and the AT&T Byron Nelson, but the book on Brooks has always been that he shines brightest on the biggest stage. A two-time PGA Champion, Koepka picked up a victory in Phoenix this year at the same price, and slotting him in this range is far too appealing to pass over. The questions about his health are real, but if we expect a top tier player with a win already this season to be our winner's profile, Koepka is just about the best value we can find in the field.
Long Shots
Sergio Garcia (+11000) - We'll go back to the well with Sergio, who was sitting in a tie for second when he finished his Thursday round in Dallas and was subsequently passed by about 18 others. He knocked it around the yard on Friday and missed the cut, making it three straight MC's since finishing 9th at THE PLAYERS. He won his group in the Match Play during that span as well, giving him two solid performances on Pete Dye courses over the last two months. Note here that one of those missed cuts came at the Dye-designed Harbour Town, but the RBC Heritage shares an architect and domicile with Kiawah Island, and little else. He won the Sanderson Farms Championship coming out of back to back missed cuts, and in his later years has been prone to wild swings in performance but still reliably a winner on either the PGA or European Tours over the past decade.
Jason Kokrak (+13000) - Kokrak's win came in the fall at the CJ CUP @ SHADOW CREEK, and recently he's put together a great stretch of golf recently. Over the past three months he's finished T13 at the Valspar Championship, T21 at the Zurich Classic, T49 at The Masters, T9 at THE PLAYERS, T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and T9 at the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession. He's gained at least 3.0 strokes off the tee in all four measured events and rode a hot putter, an area of his game that used to be prone to wild swings but has normalized over the past year. He ranks sixth in strokes gained: putting on the entire Tour, this from a golfer who had only cracked the top 100 in that statistic in his career until now. The switch to a slightly taller putter at his caddie's recommendation has paid major dividends, and Kokrak is a major threat at long odds.
