PGA Betting Guide for the Rocket Mortgage Classic
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
In two iterations of this event, we've had two highly unique winners hoist the trophy. Bryson DeChambeau bombarded the course with his massive driving as the first major step in his ascension to the top of the sport that culminated a few weeks later at the U.S. Open. The year before, Nate Lashley got into the event as an alternate and was the 353rd-ranked golfer in the world at the time of his wire-to-wire victory. He has just four finishes better than 20th since then.
Bryson is the clear favorite this week but comes at an unappetizing price of +700, and we'll bypass him at the top of the market. As we navigate our way through the odds this week, what we are looking for in all our picks is the ability to pile up birdies. DeChambeau got to 23-under par and Lashley blew out the field to get to 25-under, so we'll need aggressive golfers who can go low for four days and win this thing.
For more info on the Detroit Golf Club along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Hideki Matsuyama (+1600) - Matsuyama has been hot and cold since his historic Masters victory, with respectable results at the two major championships since then. He's played a relatively light schedule this season and a lot of premiere events where scoring is a little harder to come by, but he's still 38th in birdie or better percentage on Tour. He was 26th last season and 9th in 2019, so we know he has the ability to be a field-busting birdie-maker. His putter is too inconsistent to rely on, but for a player with his ballstriking prowess, he has a great shot to win on the weeks when he rolls it well.
Joaquin Niemann (+2200) - Niemann made his name in these dog day events back in 2018 and 2019. In his first two seasons, he had eight top-10 finishes and five of them came in June and July events, including one here in the inaugural 2019 edition. He's been quiet so far this summer, making four of his last five cuts but no finishes better than his T30 at the PGA Championship. He finished better than that in seven of the nine prior events, so long-term he's been consistent but hasn't truly contended since the two Hawaii events at the turn of the calendar. On average, he's gained 1.5 strokes or more off the tee, on approach, and putting over his last 20 events, according to stats compiled by Fantasy National Golf Club. That type of baseline will eventually pay off when things click, and at a course where he's had some success before, this is as good a week as any.
Value Spots
Sungjae Im (+2900) - Sungjae needs to find some form leading into the Tokyo Olympics, where a medal will exempt him from mandatory military service in his home country of South Korea. One of the most prolific birdie makers on Tour since he burst on the scene, Im should be able to keep pace this week. He has broken par in seven of his eight rounds at Rocket Mortgage Classic, and he has a great record at the other regular event held at a Donald Ross track with two top 10s at the Wyndham Championship. He's overdue for a spike finish, and a good round at the start would be huge for his confidence the rest of the week. His best chance is to get out to a hot start, so we'll back him for a First Round Leader (+3700) as well.
Max Homa (+5000) - Homa is an intriguing name not just for his price but for the names he is longer than. The books are pricing Emiliano Grillo (+4100) and Cameron Tringale (+4100) like they have more than one combined win in the last six years (spoiler alert -- they don't). Homa, on the other hand, has two wins in the last three years including earlier this season at Riviera. He also has four other top 10s since February while playing a much harder slate of events than either Grillo or Tringale. They are within a few decimal points of each other in birdie or better percentage, with Tringale 26th, Homa 29th, and Grillo 31st. So we can get the guy who wins and contends with regularity at the bigger number? Yes please!
Long Shots
Brandt Snedeker (+8000) - Another choice with a good record at the Ross-designed Sedgefield Country Club, Snedeker had been largely off his game the past year or so until a little flurry in April and May with three top 20s. He was among the many tied for fifth here in 2019, and we can't take much from the missed cut last year considering he was a mess pretty much everywhere after returning to action following the COVID pause in play. So now we find a former FedEx Cup Champion who we know can go low (see: Sneds 59 at the Wyndham a few years back). At 80/1 in this field, we can take a stab at a lightning in a bottle at a course he's played well before.
Cameron Champ (+15000) - We eye the big hitting Californian this week to hopefully channel DeChambeau's powerful performance and bomb his way to victory at a big number this week. Champ is a two-time winner on the PGA Tour already at age 26, and we don't have to put up a lot to get a nice payday if things fall into place like they did at the Sanderson Farms Championship or the Safeway Open. Both are similar field strength to the one we see this week, and Champ found something here last year with a T12 finish where he was second to Bryson in strokes gained off the tee.
