PGA Betting Guide for the 3M Open
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for 3M Open based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
Following one of the most iconic tournaments in the sport, the PGA Tour heads to a relatively recent addition to the schedule for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Several golfers from The Open Championship have made the trek back to the states, several of whom played well enough to finish inside the top 20.
This will be the third installment of the 3M Open, and prior winners are in the field. Matthew Wolff (+3000) held off future major winners Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa to earn his first PGA Tour victory in the debut, and Michael Thompson (+9500) went off with an opening-round 64 and putted his way to victory. We get no guidance there, as the two golfers are nothing alike -- Wolff ranks 7th on Tour in driving distance and Thompson is 177th out of 208 qualifying golfers.
One thing they had in common was that they struck the heck out of the ball, each posting a top-five approach number in his winning effort. We'll focus our card on the best ballstrikers for their prices.
For more info on the TPC Twin Cities along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Dustin Johnson (+750) - The only truly elite golfer in this field is the worthy favorite, and coming off his best finish since February at The Open, DJ is poised to make a run. Only a handful of golfers in the world can garner single-digit prices on any given week, and fewer still have proven an ability to slam the door on the field and dominate. Johnson is used to being the favorite, and his best stuff is still very close to the best anyone has. Johnson can mash his way through TPC Twin Cities or throw darts with his wedges. Rare is the case we'll see value in the top play at this price, but DJ warrants serious consideration of a top-heavy card.
Value Spots
Sergio Garcia (+3100) - A T19 finish at The Open gave Sergio four straight top-20 finishes worldwide. He still mashes off the tee despite his age, and he always has a high ceiling with his approach play. The European side for the Ryder Cup is probably out of reach on points, but another victory could make it difficult for captain Padraig Harrington not to consider him for a captain's pick. Garcia would bring loads of experience and had a good run in Match Play earlier this year. There are a ton of excellent choices this year, and Garcia's reputation alone won't get him there.
Hank Lebioda (+4700) - Lebioda has been on a tear of late, with five top-20s in his last seven starts, including three straight top-10s coming into this week. He's been carried by his putter recently, but his irons are typically a strength. He's inside the top-50 in strokes gained: approach for the season and is brimming with confidence. He's played each of the first two editions of the 3M Open, finishing 34th in 2019 and 26th in 2020, gaining 3.8 and 7.6 strokes on approach, respectively. Given his trend at this event and recent form, he makes for a solid Top 20 Finish (+250) bet as well.
Long Shots
Lanto Griffin (+7500) - Griffin fits the mold this week as a golfer capable of getting hot with both his irons and his putter, and the recent form is more encouraging than it seems at first glance. He hasn't been inside the top-20 since a T7 at the Farmers Insurance Open, but he's consistently making cuts and has been playing in all the biggest events with the toughest fields all season. Finishes of T35 and T33 at the U.S. Open and Open Championship over his past four events bode well heading into an event with a much softer field and friendlier scoring conditions.
James Hahn (+13000) - Fifth place at the Barbasol Championship may have shaken something loose for Hahn, who has had an interesting season, to say the least. Last week was his fifth top-10 of the season. Only 21 golfers have more than that on Tour this season, and Hahn strung together three in a row to start the Swing Season. He has streaky ability, but that swings the other way with downsides like the seven straight missed cuts before the Barbasol. At 130/1, he's worth a flyer for sure as a two-time PGA Tour winner, and we can get odds better than DJ's outright number for a Top 10 Finish (+950).
