PGA Betting Guide for THE NORTHERN TRUST
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for THE NORTHERN TRUST based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
The FedEx Cup Playoffs are upon us, and a familiar venue awaits in Liberty National Golf Course in Jersey City, New Jersey. The top-125 golfers in the FedEx Cup Standings qualified for the first leg, and whether it's pushing through to the TOUR Championship and the accompanying exemptions or earning enough points to vie for a starting position in the finale, there's something at stake for everyone this week.
As the PGA Tour grows ever deeper and more talented, the cream of the crop has had to up their game even more and in the strongest fields -- whether they be major championships, WGC events, the Olympics, or FedEx Cup Playoffs events -- the likelihood that one of the top handful of golfers either wins or is firmly in contention is as high as ever.
That elite pool is deeper than ever, and aside from an outlier result we can confidently narrow our selections to the very best golfers in the world. We'll try to make that the focal point as we fill out our card.
For more info on Liberty National Golf Course along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Jon Rahm (+900) - Rahm opened at 11/1 on FanDuel and has seen that number shorten, but after being offered shorter odds at each of the last two major championships, we have to bite at this number in a 125-man field. He finished third and first at the two majors, which, along with a seventh at the Scottish Open, a withdrawal while up by a million at the Memorial, and a T8 at the PGA Championship play, are his only events since late May. At the peak of his powers, the world No. 1 has barely had any chances to flex. Rahm is a great fit this week and finished tied for third at this course in 2019, and with seven other top-10s this season he's playable even at short odds for a Top 10 Finish (+115).
Collin Morikawa (+1900) - Morikawa's ascent to the very top of the sport is nearly complete just a couple of years after joining the PGA Tour. Now a two-time major champion, he'll represent the American side in the Ryder Cup in a few months and basically check off all the career goals before his 25th birthday. While not as longstanding of a tradition, the Tour is clearly committed to the bit with regard to the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and a run over the next few weeks would etch Morikawa's name forever amongst the likes of Bill Haas and Brandt Snedeker. He's in pole position as we head to Jersey, a two-time winner this season with six more top-10s.
Value Spots
Justin Thomas (+2700) - Thomas has just one top-10 worldwide since winning THE PLAYERS back in March, but at this number, we cannot overlook the 2017 FedEx Cup Champion, who has booked multiple victories in each of the past four years but has just one to date in 2021. It's a matter of if, not when, for Thomas, who save for Morikawa is the best iron player in the world even if the form has been slightly off of late. He found something in Memphis when gaining 6.1 strokes with approach, but as is too often the case with JT, he gave 5.1 back with his putter. It was his fourth time this season losing at least 5 strokes putting, according to stats from Fantasy National Golf Club. Thomas has a bit more variance than some of the other top players, but when betting outrights, we don't care how consistently he finishes inside the top-10, just that he has a ton of wins in his range of outcomes.
Bryson DeChambeau (+2900) - No stranger to Playoff success, DeChambeau won back-to-back legs in 2018 and truly wants to shine among the very best golfers in the world. There are definitely questions about mentality and confidence coming in, having finished eighth at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational after a disastrous Sunday 74. He and playing partner Harris English (+4100) were put on the clock for slow play, that old DeChambeau crux. Bryson was also subject to catcalls from the gallery amidst his absurd feud with Brooks Koepka (+2100), but we won't let everything that happened on Sunday make us forget about rounds of 65, 66, and 63 to start the week. At 29/1, we can't resist, knowing that Bryson's driver and putter work well enough and often enough to carry him to victory.
Long Shots
Corey Conners (+6000) - Conners has the feel of one who missed his window in the spring, with five straight top-15s in March and April carried by an uncharacteristically hot putter. The flat stick has unsurprisingly cooled for the Canadian, but the pendulum has swung so far the other way that we know Conners is due for a spike week. He is not so poor a putter that he is consistently hopeless from week to week, but rather inconsistent enough that among those minus-2.0, minus-4.1, and minus-1.3 weeks he can pop up with a plus-2.5 on the greens with no sign of anything else in his game changing. He has the feel of a Keegan Bradley (+14000 this week), a terrific ballstriker and poor putter who stormed the field in a rain-soaked Sunday to win a Playoff event back in 2018.
