PGA Betting Guide for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. However, finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they select a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
We grabbed our first win of the young season with a Sam Burns tip at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and as befits a trip to Vegas we'll roll those winnings right into the Shriners and try for the back-to-back. We have an interesting field this week, with a glut of options under 40/1 and none shorter than 20/1. Without a super elite to soak up bets at the top of the market, the books are letting the public decide if they'd like to take the bait.
Iron play is a big part of the equation every week, and while this week is no different we do want to highlight how important it is not to lose strokes around and on the greens. Our card this week is loaded with golfers who can get it done either with their irons or their short game.
For more info on TPC Summerlin, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the numberFire course primer.
At the Top
Brooks Koepka (+2000) - Koepka's all-time stretch of dominance is now more than two years in the rearview, with injuries and inconsistent play outside of majors playing a big role in our current perception of him. That he leads this field is not a surprise, but that he's tied with a young but nowhere-near-as-accomplished Viktor Hovland is. Substitute Brooks with Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, or Rory McIlroy for instance, and that golfer is almost definitely shorter than 20/1. We took advantage of a similar pricing question at the Waste Management Phoenix Open last year, and Koepka rewarded us with a victory. Do not be surprised if Koepka lays down an alpha performance and asserts himself in this event.
Value Spots
Patrick Reed (+3400) - It's been a tough couple of months for Reed, to say the least -- he missed the first two legs of the FedEx Cup Playoffs with bilateral pneumonia, was passed over for the Ryder Cup team, was involved in the resultant social media disaster of (maybe) liking tweets criticizing Captain Steve Stricker for leaving him off, and then got to watch as the U.S. team crushed the Europeans while everyone seemed to be having a grand old time without him. He is at his best when it's Team Reed against the world, and he has one of the best short games in the world even when his ballstriking is uneven. Reed is a reliable winner on Tour and often available at longer odds because he does not draw a ton of public money to push him down. At 34/1 he's a great value this week.
Joaquin Niemann (+4400) - Niemann has recent finishes here of 10th, missed cut, and 13th, and coming off a season where he missed just one cut and had three runner ups. He could very well have won twice in Hawaii at the start of last season, and he'd add another loss in a playoff at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. A couple of shots go differently and Niemann would be 10-15 points shorter without question, and despite struggles in the Playoffs, he is best putting on bentgrass greens. He'll celebrate his 23rd birthday next month, making him more than a year younger than Hovland and more than two younger than Will Zalatoris (+2800), who just finished off a Rookie of the Year campaign as Niemann wrapped up his third pro season. He's overlooked among the Tour's young stars, and he's on the cusp of a big season. These 44/1 opportunities will not be available for long.
Long Shots
Russell Henley (+7000) - Henley surely played well enough in 2021 to win, at one point midway through the season leading the Tour in strokes gained: approach and having been in the mix on several Sundays before fading down the stretch. Once upon a time, he was also one of the best putters on Tour, and a Sunday 71 at the Wyndham Championship had to be tough to swallow after being in pole position all week. He was a nonfactor in the Playoffs and the rest since then, will have done him some good. He's better to be charging from behind than front-running anyway and if he's a few back on Sunday, he'll be a name to watch in live markets.
Zach Johnson (+20000) - Way down the board we find Johnson, who was fifth on Tour in strokes gained: putting last season and at one point had made 12 straight cuts. We saw Martin Laird (+15000) pull off a surprise win here last year, and Stewart Cink (+13000) won twice last year, so even with the massive talent in the sport, we should not discount veterans who know their way around a course. We do not need to invest a lot to get a big return, and Johnson showed enough promise last year that we can bet on the pendulum swinging the other way after a poor start in Mississippi to start the season.
