PGA Betting Guide for the Valero Texas Open
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Valero Texas Open based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
Jammed between the WGC Match Play and The Masters, this week's event draws a mixed crowd of a few elites trying to find some form before Augusta and a few hopeful to earn their spot in the field entirely. Each of the last six winners are in the field, and we definitely lean a bit on course history here more than at other venues.
That's due partly to the distance that lops off a good chunk of the field, and our key stat this week will be ball-striking prowess both off the tee and on approach. We'll lean toward driving first and foremost, but approach play is key every week.
For more info on TPC San Antonio - AT&T Oaks along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out Brandon Gdula's article.
At the Top
Corey Conners (+1600) - Coming off a third-place finish at the Match Play, Conners is riding high returning to the site of his only PGA Tour win (so far!). As we saw with Sam Burns a few weeks ago, that maiden victory holds a special place in a golfer's heart, and Conners has become a consistent, world-class player since winning here as a Monday Qualifier back in 2019. He missed just two cuts in calendar 2021 and reached the TOUR Championship for the second time in three years. He is 7th on Tour this season in strokes gained: off the tee, and while the approach ranking is a tad low at 46th, Conners is 3rd in green in regulation percentage. Considering he's finished 9th, 12th, and 9th in strokes gained: approach the last three seasons, we can expect that ranking to rise. He gained 11.2 via approaches here in his winning effort in 2019, and the stars are aligned for a return to the winner's circle.
Bryson DeChambeau (+2400) - DeChambeau has not played enough to qualify for the Tour's strokes gained statistics yet, but he was first by a mile off the tee in 2021 and 2020. Health is a concern, but after an ousting in the group stage and The Masters on deck next week, this would have been a perfect spot for Bryson to rest up and focus his practice efforts at Augusta. Instead, he's here, at a course where distance is essential, going off at nearly 25/1. He's increased the variance in his game with this bulk-up strategy, and his wins over the past two years have come both in form and out. At this number, we'll bite and live with the result
Value Spots
NONE
Long Shots
Robert Macintyre (+6500) - Bobby Mac is already in the field at Augusta, and a good effort this week bodes well for the 25-year-old lefty. He was 12th last year at The Masters and has otherwise shown well in limited PGA Tour action, finishing 15th earlier this year at Riviera. He was 16th in strokes gained: off the tee on the DP World Tour last season, and some Texas winds won't rattle him. The price is right for a golfer with loads of talent because he's an unknown commodity on PGA tracks, and we also like his number for a Top-10 Finish (+750).
Kyoung-Hoon Lee (+7500) - TPC K.H. Lee catches the eye at 75/1, having missed just one cut in the past eight months over 17 events. His breakthrough win came last year in Texas at the Byron Nelson, and his off the tee play is better than you'd think at 38th on the entire Tour. We like him most for a Leader After Round 1 (+7500) bet, but he's earned his way onto our card by sealing the deal once already on the PGA Tour.
Branden Grace (+12000) - Grace has some solid form at TPC San Antonio, finishing 23rd last year, 10th in 2017, and 9th in 2016. He picked up a win in an alternate field last season, but he needs a victory here to earn a spot back in The Masters. Grace looks out of form but did prior to winning in Puerto Rico. At this stage, his range of outcomes is fairly wide, but a good record here and motivation to earn his way back to Augusta make him a bright spot in a dismal selection priced at 100/1 and longer.
