PGA Betting Guide for the AT&T Byron Nelson
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the AT&T Byron Nelson based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
TPC Craig Ranch debuted last season with a 25-under victory by Kyoung-Hoon Lee. Conditions this week seem even more favorable, and with some top names in the field to tune up for the PGA Championships we should be in for a shootout. As the prelude to the year's second major a few hours north, 9 of the top 20 players in the world are on hand including world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler in his first action since winning the Masters and earning that status.
Typically a low-scoring environment will bring more variance into an event, though with such a strong top tier it will be hard to pass over the favorites entirely. The fairways are wide and the greens are slow, so we're looking for distance off the tee with little regard for accuracy, and especially approach play.
For more info on TPC Craig Ranch along with this week's key stats and Brandon Gdula's win simulations, check out his article.
At the Top
Justin Thomas (+1300) - Thomas gets the nod over Scheffler (+950) and Jordan Spieth (+1700) at the very top of the board to lead our card. If given the freedom to launch off the tee without risk, he can do serious damage, and to put it charitably -- he's among the most highly variant putters of the elite class on the PGA Tour. One thing Thomas always does well is hit his irons, and for all his struggles putting, he does have terrific touch around the greens. JT's case is generally made via his resume, and we should be happy to grab him at close to the same price we can next week at a major (+1400 for the PGA Championship).
Dustin Johnson (+1900) - DJ is here to find some form, having last been seen following his T12 at the Masters with a weekend on the water in Hilton Head with Paulina...er I mean a missed cut at the RBC Heritage. Johnson and his longtime partner tied the knot since then, and some good vibes at home and a little time away from the game may be just what he needs to get back into championship form in time for the PGA Championship. Like Thomas, the opportunity to let it rip off the tee helps Johnson (and, in truth, most of the top players), and a scoring fest is no problem. He's plenty intriguing next week, as well, and at 19/1, he's a value at the top of the board.
Value Spots
Joaquin Niemann (+3400) - A massive win at Riviera earlier this year vaulted Niemann into the top 20 in the world, and while the Riv is a far cry from TPC Craig Ranch, Niemann's ball-striking strength is highlighted here and his putting woes are mitigated. Bent surfaces are by far his favorite anyway, and he'll have plenty of room to work with here. With Niemann's lone blip in 2022 a missed cut on the back of the biggest week of his career, we can safely back the 23-year-old Chilean in a shootout.
Cameron Champ (+4600) - It's a heavy price for the lack of consistency, but win equity is just as important. And the two things Champ has done since joining the PGA Tour are drive the hell out of the ball and win tournaments. His T10 at The Masters and T6 at the Mexico Open will likely help with confidence, and a few practice rounds at a course he can really sink his teeth into probably has Champ itching to tee it up this week. He's never fended off a leaderboard quite like this one, but that Augusta finish may have finally tapped into something within Champ that tells him he belongs. One is coming soon, and if you don't like him this week, take a peek ahead and try his number for Southern Hills.
Long Shots
Sebastian Munoz (+7000) - Munoz bagged two top-five showings in the fall and missed the cut in his first event in 2022, but since then, he's been fairly consistent without putting it all together in any given week. He can get streaky, but he's been rock solid off the tee of late and has gained at least 2.0 strokes driving in four of his last five events. He's finished 29th, 33rd, 26th, 21st, and 23rd over that span -- not always well enough to win and always missing something. But if he can get it in order -- even just for a round -- he can make a splash, and on the possibility that burst comes on Thursday, I am also backing him as Leader After Round 1 (+8500).
Matthew Wolff (+9000) - A fast start fizzled over the weekend last week for Wolff, but he feasts on easy courses and a little confidence from last week could go a long way. He has loads of talent but is coming to grips with the fact that the guys he used to beat in college have developed into far superior players. A new measuring stick is in order, and the occasional big-time event will come if he makes his hay at resort courses and soft fields. TPC Craig Ranch is overmatched against PGA Tour professionals, and Wolff is the exact type of player we want to back in a friendly scoring environment.
