PGA Betting Guide for the Charles Schwab Challenge
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Charles Schwab Challenge based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
The PGA Tour heads back to Texas following Justin Thomas's come-from-behind win to earn his second major championship and second PGA Championship. Strong headliners lead the way well into the midrange this week at Colonial Country Club, but coming off a major we'll forego the top of the market entirely and look for values further down the board.
Colonial is a test of precision, one of the few courses to withstand the barrage of bombers and still produce quality fields and quality winners. Our hesitance around the top of the market has more to do with betting short odds after a major hangover than an inclination away from class. With such a solid field, we can get good golfers at good prices -- rare enough in this day and age that we'll happily fill our card with golfers longer than 25/1.
For more info on Colonial Country Club along with this week's key stats and Brandon Gdula's win simulations, check out his article.
At the Top
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Value Spots
Sam Burns (+2900) - Along with Viktor Hovland (+1900), Burns is in the conversation for best player going who simply has never factored into the picture at a major championship -- at least not yet. That would make either ideal coming off the PGA, and both are young enough that they'll likely have plenty of chances and won't let a disappointing week linger into the next tournament. Burns makes for a better play at 10 points higher and at least as much win equity as Hovland. He is also a far better putter, and with six top 10s this season, he's a top-line selection we can feel good about. He also makes for a nice Top-10 Finish (+310) wager.
Daniel Berger (+3400) - Berger was dismal last week, losing 3.1 strokes on approaches and 7.3 strokes putting, according to stats from Fantasy National Golf Club. It's still just his second missed cut in the last year, and when he did so in Phoenix earlier this year, he followed it up with a fourth-place finish at the Honda Classic. Berger beat a stacked field here in the second event out of the COVID-19 layoff in 2020, and he's known to stack up strong finishes at courses he likes. In addition to his two wins at TPC Southwind, he has two additional top fives -- he followed a fifth at Pebble Peach in 2020 with a win in 2021. And he's posted good records without wins at courses such as PGA National, Golf Club at Houston, and -- to a lesser extent -- Harbour Town. Colonial is thus far an exception, with no results better than 20th aside from his victory. I think that changes this week.
Billy Horschel (+4800) - Horschel has found some real consistency in his game, with a withdrawal at THE PLAYERS Championship the only event worldwide where he failed to reach the weekend since last June's U.S. Open. That stretch includes a win overseas in the fall and mostly quality golf in 2022. HIs short game has bailed him out in some instances, but his two top 10s this year came when he gained in all facets. Two dissatisfying performances in the year's majors belie what has otherwise been really strong stroke-play form and another strong effort at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play this spring. He is objectively a good value, as he's still the 16th-ranked golfer in the world but checks in with the 18th-best odds on FanDuel this week.
Long Shots
Kevin Kisner (+9000) - Three straight missed cuts aren't exactly the form we like to see, but Kisner is someone we are willing to get creative with. He is self-aware and vocal about his challenges at many Tour setups, which make events like this one all the more important for him to capitalize on. He missed cuts in two of three events before finishing 4th at TPC Sawgrass this year, and his win at the Wyndham Championship last summer was preceded by finishes of 63rd and 73rd. Southern Hills was never going to work for him, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he was out at Colonial early this week to get some extra practice in at an event where he can actually contend. He won here in 2017, with top 10s in each of the two preceding years.
Rickie Fowler (+11000) - Because why not? Fowler has managed consecutive top 25s for the first time since around this time last year, when he posted an 8th at the PGA Championship and an 11th at the Memorial. He hung in there at Southern Hills and finished T23, gaining off the tee, on approach, and around the green for the first time since a T3 finish at THE CJ CUP this past fall. Fowler has also gained with his irons in five straight and 9 of 10 events overall, so the ball-striking form is far better than it's been for most of the last two years. He's way past his prime, and at this stage, we can't ask him to compete on a course that requires power he can't match. Colonial isn't that type of course, though, and with Rickie at +11000, we can conservatively back him and yield huge upside if he comes through.
