The Honda Classic: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations
This week, the PGA Tour swaps coasts and goes from California to Florida to start the Florida swing.
The Honda Classic loses "elevated" status, so the elite fields we've grown accustomed to the past two weeks are not a factor for this week at PGA National.
But the daily fantasy golf and golf betting opportunities still exist, so there's no reason to be down on the week even if the field itself is a step back.
Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
Course Information and Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks
PGA National Resort (The Champion) Course Info & Key Stats
Par: 70
Distance: 7,125 (about 100 yards shorter than the average par 70)
Fairway Width: 29.4 yards (16th-narrowest of 80 qualified courses)
Average Green Size: 7,000 square feet (~116% of the PGA average)
Green Type: Bermuda
Stimpmeter: N/A
Past 5 Winning Scores: -10, -12, -6, -9, -8,
Past 5 Cut Lines: +2, +1, +3, +2, +5
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Adjusted Strokes Gained
With distance not being a huge factor this week on the par 70, this is a pretty unique setup overall for the PGA Tour, especially compared to the birdie-friendly setups of the swing season and the more distance-friendly courses since the calendar flipped.
Notably, four of the past five events were decided by either a single stroke or a playoff; the -12 winning score from 2021 by Matt Jones was actually a five-shot victory. That kind of means that a truer winning score could've just as easily been -8, making the winning scores even "worse" relative to par.
The par 3s are really tough, via datagolf, and there isn't exactly a ton of reprieve on the par 4s, either. PGA National is pegged as the single hardest course to gain strokes from approach play on Tour -- and it's 8th-toughest off-the-tee.
Long approaches are common, and they're tough. That makes for a lack of scoring chances.
Penalties loom (15 holes have water in play), and there are 67 bunkers on the course.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
The best strokes gained averages among golfers who have played at least twice here over the past five years (a "-" indicates a did-not-play situation):
- Byeong-Hun An (+1.81): -, MC, 4th, 38th, 5th
- Sepp Straka (+1.74): 1st, 33rd, 27th, MC, -
- Sungjae Im (+1.67): MC, 8th, 1st, 51st, -
- Sam Ryder (+1.41): 9th, 8th, 53rd, -, -
- Mark Hubbard (+1.41): 15th, 46th, 11th, -, -
- Cameron Davis (+1.21): -, 33rd, 8th, 59th, -
- Aaron Wise (+1.13): MC, 13th, 35th, -, 33rd
- Chris Kirk (+1.02): 7th, 25th, MC, MC, 33rd
- Adam Svensson (+1.00): 9th, -, -, 59th, -
- Ryan Palmer (+1.00): 70th, -, 17th, 4th, MC
Past winners in the field include Sepp Straka (2022), Sungjae Im (2020), Padraig Harrington (2005 and 2015), Rory Sabbatini (2011), Camilo Villegas (2010), Luke Donald (2006), Matt Kuchar (2002).
Win Simulations for The Honda Classic
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary |
Win% | Top- 10% |
Made Cut% |
FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sungjae Im |
$11,900 | 8.4% | 30.0% | 82.2% | +700 |
| Aaron Wise |
$11,600 | 4.6% | 31.9% | 79.3% | +2500 |
| Alex Noren |
$11,200 | 4.0% | 28.5% | 76.8% | +2600 |
| Billy Horschel |
$10,800 | 2.6% | 22.8% | 72.2% | +3100 |
| Min Woo Lee |
$11,000 | 2.5% | 17.9% | 66.0% | +2400 |
| Chris Kirk |
$11,400 | 2.5% | 19.5% | 68.5% | +2200 |
| Denny McCarthy |
$10,900 | 2.4% | 19.6% | 70.2% | +2600 |
| J.T. Poston |
$10,500 | 2.4% | 20.6% | 70.6% | +3100 |
| Shane Lowry |
$11,800 | 2.3% | 19.1% | 70.2% | +1300 |
| Matt Kuchar |
$11,100 | 2.3% | 19.7% | 70.3% | +2200 |
| Jhonattan Vegas |
$10,100 | 2.2% | 15.6% | 65.5% | +3700 |
| Adrian Meronk |
$9,900 | 2.0% | 15.9% | 63.6% | +4000 |
| Taylor Pendrith |
$10,600 | 2.0% | 16.9% | 67.7% | +3100 |
| Thomas Detry |
$10,400 | 1.9% | 16.1% | 62.6% | +3100 |
| Hayden Buckley |
$9,600 | 1.7% | 14.4% | 61.7% | +5000 |
| Nick Hardy |
$9,400 | 1.6% | 15.1% | 63.4% | +6000 |
| Cameron Davis |
$9,900 | 1.5% | 15.2% | 63.8% | +4500 |
| Brandon Wu |
$8,900 | 1.5% | 13.1% | 59.1% | +9500 |
| Lee Hodges |
$9,800 | 1.4% | 12.7% | 59.4% | +4200 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout |
$9,800 | 1.4% | 15.0% | 64.7% | +4000 |
| Stephan Jaeger |
$9,300 | 1.3% | 12.0% | 62.5% | +5500 |
| Davis Riley |
$8,700 | 1.3% | 12.8% | 61.1% | +5500 |
| Callum Tarren |
$8,600 | 1.3% | 13.2% | 59.2% | +10000 |
| William Gordon |
$9,100 | 1.3% | 11.8% | 59.0% | +6000 |
| Joseph Bramlett |
$9,300 | 1.2% | 11.5% | 61.0% | +5000 |
| Benjamin Griffin |
$9,200 | 1.2% | 11.8% | 58.1% | +6000 |
| Byeong Hun An |
$9,100 | 1.2% | 10.5% | 55.7% | +4500 |
| Robby Shelton IV |
$9,700 | 1.1% | 11.0% | 60.7% | +5500 |
| Adam Svensson |
$10,200 | 1.1% | 10.2% | 57.1% | +3400 |
| Ryan Palmer |
$9,400 | 1.0% | 9.9% | 55.5% | +5500 |
| Seonghyeon Kim |
$9,000 | 1.0% | 10.5% | 59.4% | +7500 |
| Aaron Rai |
$9,500 | 1.0% | 9.4% | 57.2% | +6000 |
| Sepp Straka |
$10,000 | 1.0% | 10.0% | 55.5% | +4500 |
| Justin Suh |
$9,500 | 1.0% | 11.9% | 61.2% | +6000 |
| Padraig Harrington |
$9,000 | 0.9% | 6.8% | 50.0% | +5500 |
| Adam Schenk |
$8,700 | 0.9% | 8.8% | 54.9% | +13000 |
| Mark Hubbard |
$8,600 | 0.9% | 9.1% | 57.6% | +10000 |
| Carl Yuan |
$8,100 | 0.9% | 9.0% | 55.4% | +16000 |
| Aaron Baddeley |
$8,400 | 0.8% | 8.9% | 53.1% | +12000 |
| Ben Martin |
$8,200 | 0.7% | 8.1% | 51.6% | +15000 |
| Greyson Sigg |
$8,700 | 0.7% | 9.5% | 58.4% | +10000 |
| Tyler Duncan |
$7,800 | 0.7% | 6.6% | 48.5% | +28000 |
| MJ Daffue |
$8,000 | 0.6% | 7.6% | 51.2% | +15000 |
| Russell Knox |
$8,800 | 0.6% | 8.9% | 57.0% | +7000 |
| Danny Willett |
$9,200 | 0.6% | 7.6% | 55.0% | +5500 |
| Erik Barnes |
$7,900 | 0.6% | 6.8% | 54.7% | +14000 |
| Chesson Hadley |
$8,200 | 0.6% | 7.5% | 54.7% | +14000 |
| Harris English |
$10,300 | 0.6% | 6.2% | 49.0% | +3400 |
| Danny Lee |
$8,100 | 0.6% | 7.6% | 50.4% | +28000 |
| Kevin Tway |
$8,100 | 0.6% | 5.5% | 49.7% | +14000 |
| Sam Stevens |
$8,200 | 0.6% | 6.9% | 52.8% | +11000 |
| Benjamin Taylor |
$8,800 | 0.6% | 7.8% | 53.7% | +9500 |
| Garrick Higgo |
$9,700 | 0.5% | 5.3% | 46.4% | +5000 |
| Charley Hoffman |
$8,900 | 0.5% | 5.7% | 50.2% | +7500 |
| Dylan Frittelli |
$8,500 | 0.5% | 6.5% | 52.5% | +10000 |
| Harry Hall |
$8,400 | 0.5% | 6.9% | 53.9% | +11000 |
| Adam Long |
$8,500 | 0.5% | 7.3% | 54.3% | +11000 |
| Peter Malnati |
$8,500 | 0.5% | 7.5% | 54.7% | +10000 |
| Erik van Rooyen |
$9,000 | 0.5% | 5.0% | 44.4% | +6000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for The Honda Classic
The odds on Sungjae Im are too steep, so we're instead seeing some value on both Aaron Wise (+2500) and Alexander Noren (+2600).
I also like Jhonattan Vegas (+3700) a bit more than the model does. He's been phenomenal tee-to-green lately.
Brandon Wu (+9500) and Callum Tarren (+10000) are long shots with some outright appeal.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for The Honda Classic
All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Sungjae Im (FanDuel Salary: $11,900 | Golf betting odds: +700) - There's nobody in the field on the level of Sungjae Im, who won here in 2020 and followed it up with a top 10 (and then a missed cut last year). Im is a positive in all four strokes gained stats over the past 50 rounds, and he is the chalk for a reason. As evidenced by the missed cut a year ago, anything can happen even for the favorites (his salary was $12,000 last year at this event). Yet as far as a process play goes, nobody is in Im's tier.
Aaron Wise ($11,600 | +2500) - Wise has finished 13th, 35th, and 33rd in three of his past four starts here (he did miss the cut last year). He has missed his past two cuts by a combined three strokes, yet that's just reason to think he'll be less popular than he should be. The long-term data on Wise has his win odds in my model popping unlike anyone other than Im's and Alexander Noren's.
Taylor Pendrith ($10,600 | +3100) - Pendrith is nuclear off the tee in terms of distance. That's not a must. However, he has the rare combination of distance and putting (though it's getting a little less rare with some of the up-and-comers). Pendrith debuted with a T25 here last year while ranking top-12 in both strokes gained: off the tee and strokes gained: approach. We've seen a lot of top-15 finishes for Pendrith at fields like this one last summer.
Others to Consider:
J.T. Poston ($10,500 | +3100) - Balanced game puts him in great position this week.
Jhonattan Vegas ($10,100 | +3700) - Vegas has had good form at PGA National and is a great ball-striker.
Mid-Range Picks
Cameron Davis ($9,900 | +4500) - Davis is super long off the tee, which isn't a must but always helps at almost any setup. He's the 11th-best ball-striker in the field and is 35th around the green. The question for him is the putter. The three consecutive missed cuts have his salary lower than what the upside is.
Stephan Jaeger ($9,300 | +5500) - Jaeger finds himself ranked 14th in true strokes gained over the past 50 rounds thanks to ranking 44th or better in all three tee-to-green stats. Jaeger's putter has run cold, leading to weak results.
Others to Consider:
Hayden Buckley ($9,600 | +5000) - Leader in off-the-tee play and 9th in ball-striking; short game is the issue.
Byeong-Hun An ($9,100 | +4500) - Great course history; not the best form, yet has pop weeks lately.
Low-Salaried Picks
Brandon Wu ($8,900 | +9500) - The model likes Wu well enough at the 95/1 number. He has been missing cuts (three of the past five to start 2023), but what he does provide is consistent driver play (18th), which is virtually always bankable.
Adam Schenk ($8,700 | +13000) - In terms of finishing positions, Schenk has done pretty well lately for the salary. He's been T20 at the Farmers, T37 at Pebble Beach, T23 at the WM Phoenix Open, and T50 at the Genesis Open. A lot of it has to do with the short game, but he is also a top-55 tee-to-green option overall.
Others to Consider:
Padraig Harrington ($9,000 | +5500) - Pretty dominant on the Champions Tour and European Tour lately. That has value here.
Ben Taylor ($8,800 | +9500) - Largely gaining strokes with approach, but putter is good too.
Sam Stevens ($8,200 | +11000) - Starting to get the PGA Tour figured out; great Korn Ferry golfer with good ball-striking.
