Valero Texas Open: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations
Though the Masters draws near, we're still a week out from seeing Augusta National plastered all over our televisions and other devices.
This week, the PGA Tour is headed to TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course for the Valero Texas Open. The field is pretty middling but does feature some recognizable names at the top of the list.
With that in mind, let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
Course Information and Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks
TPC San Antonio (Oaks) Course Info & Key Stats
Par: 72
Distance: 7,438 (about 40 yards longer than the average par 72)
Fairway Width: 31.8 yards (average; 35th of 80)
Average Green Size: 6,400 square feet (a bit larger than average)
Green Type: Poa overseed
Stimpmeter: 11
Past 5 Winning Scores: -13, -18, -20, -17, -12
Past 5 Cut Lines: -1, +2, -1, +1, Even
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better Rate, Adjusted Strokes Gained
Boasting average length and fairway width combined with the least penalizing rough on the PGA Tour, TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course de-emphasizes the importance of driving ability. That increases volatility by nature of keeping the shorter hitters in competition.
It's much more of a second-shot golf course, and it holds the 16th-hardest-to-hit greens on Tour -- among 80 courses with ShotLink data, via datagolf.
Bunkering is belligerent (13th-toughest) and numerous (64 of them), and getting out of them once you're in them is key.
So, while driving itself isn't a super crucial stat, it's not a matter of simply racking up birdies. It'll be a good overall test for golfers.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
The best strokes gained averages among golfers who have played at least twice here over the past five years (a "-" indicates a did-not-play situation):
| Golfer | SG/ Round |
2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Streelman |
2.24 | 18 | - | - | 6 | 8 |
| Lucas Glover |
2.16 | 18 | 4 | - | 14 | - |
| Corey Conners |
1.97 | 35 | 14 | - | 1 | 26 |
| Charley Hoffman |
1.97 | MC | 2 | - | 2 | 64 |
| Andrew Landry |
1.76 | - | MC | - | MC | 1 |
| Matt Kuchar |
1.66 | 2 | 12 | - | 7 | 51 |
| Ryan Moore |
1.65 | - | 76 | - | 3 | 7 |
| Chris Kirk |
1.64 | 35 | 6 | - | MC | 8 |
| Si Woo Kim |
1.53 | 13 | 23 | - | 4 | 45 |
| Trey Mullinax |
1.37 | MC | - | - | 76 | 2 |
| Martin Laird |
1.28 | 29 | 30 | - | 36 | 11 |
| Dylan Frittelli |
1.24 | 8 | - | - | 42 | 20 |
| Troy Merritt |
1.16 | 4 | 34 | - | - | 36 |
| Andrew Putnam |
1.03 | 41 | MC | - | 36 | 8 |
| Rickie Fowler |
1.00 | MC | 17 | - | 17 | - |
Past winners in the field include J.J. Spaun (2022), Corey Conners (2019), Andrew Landry (2018), Kevin Chappell (2017), Charley Hoffman (2016), Jimmy Walker (2015), and Martin Laird (2013).
Win Simulations for the Valero Texas Open
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary |
Win% | Top- 10% |
Made Cut% |
FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrrell Hatton | $12,000 | 6.5% | 34.7% | 81.2% | +1300 |
| Taylor Montgomery | $11,300 | 4.0% | 28.0% | 76.8% | +2800 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $11,400 | 3.7% | 25.6% | 74.9% | +2400 |
| Rickie Fowler | $11,700 | 3.0% | 23.3% | 73.7% | +2000 |
| Si Woo Kim | $11,600 | 2.9% | 18.7% | 71.3% | +2100 |
| Alex Noren | $9,900 | 2.9% | 24.2% | 74.8% | +4800 |
| Matt Kuchar | $10,600 | 2.8% | 22.2% | 73.4% | +2800 |
| Ryan Fox | $9,900 | 2.5% | 19.0% | 66.4% | +5000 |
| Corey Conners | $11,900 | 2.5% | 19.1% | 71.8% | +1700 |
| Chris Kirk | $11,100 | 2.3% | 19.9% | 72.4% | +3100 |
| Andrew Putnam | $9,800 | 2.3% | 23.1% | 74.5% | +5000 |
| J.J. Spaun | $10,800 | 2.3% | 17.7% | 65.7% | +3400 |
| Brendon Todd | $10,100 | 2.0% | 19.9% | 71.9% | +4800 |
| Thomas Detry | $10,200 | 1.9% | 16.0% | 64.0% | +4400 |
| Benjamin Griffin | $10,000 | 1.8% | 14.5% | 62.6% | +4100 |
| Sam Ryder | $9,400 | 1.8% | 18.0% | 69.5% | +5500 |
| Nick Taylor | $9,500 | 1.5% | 14.8% | 66.4% | +5000 |
| Beau Hossler | $9,200 | 1.5% | 11.6% | 58.7% | +9000 |
| Davis Riley | $10,900 | 1.4% | 12.5% | 59.9% | +3400 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | $9,700 | 1.4% | 15.9% | 67.2% | +5500 |
| Cameron Davis | $10,300 | 1.4% | 13.7% | 62.2% | +4400 |
| Alex Smalley | $9,400 | 1.3% | 12.2% | 61.6% | +6500 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $8,600 | 1.2% | 14.7% | 66.5% | +12000 |
| Brandon Wu | $9,300 | 1.2% | 10.8% | 58.7% | +7500 |
| Byeong Hun An | $9,000 | 1.1% | 10.9% | 56.7% | +10000 |
| Robby Shelton IV | $9,000 | 1.1% | 11.9% | 63.2% | +10000 |
| Adam Schenk | $9,600 | 1.0% | 10.6% | 61.0% | +4800 |
| Ben Martin | $9,200 | 1.0% | 9.6% | 56.2% | +10000 |
| Trey Mullinax | $8,800 | 1.0% | 9.2% | 54.2% | +10000 |
| Tyler Duncan | $8,500 | 1.0% | 8.8% | 54.5% | +8500 |
| Ryan Palmer | $8,500 | 0.9% | 8.9% | 54.3% | +8500 |
| Aaron Rai | $9,800 | 0.9% | 9.7% | 59.9% | +5000 |
| Eric Cole | $8,900 | 0.9% | 9.1% | 54.4% | +10000 |
| Samuel Stevens | $8,700 | 0.9% | 10.9% | 58.9% | +11000 |
| Taylor Pendrith | $9,600 | 0.9% | 9.4% | 54.3% | +4800 |
| Matt Wallace | $10,500 | 0.9% | 10.5% | 60.2% | +3700 |
| Lee Hodges | $8,400 | 0.9% | 9.8% | 55.9% | +13000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $9,100 | 0.9% | 10.1% | 56.4% | +9000 |
| Francesco Molinari | $8,700 | 0.8% | 8.1% | 52.4% | +7000 |
| Hayden Buckley | $8,900 | 0.8% | 8.8% | 54.9% | +10000 |
| William Gordon | $9,300 | 0.8% | 9.1% | 53.8% | +8500 |
| Matthew NeSmith | $8,200 | 0.8% | 8.7% | 54.7% | +13000 |
| Joseph Bramlett | $8,300 | 0.8% | 8.0% | 56.8% | +14000 |
| Nick Hardy | $8,300 | 0.7% | 9.1% | 59.2% | +13000 |
| Peter Malnati | $7,300 | 0.7% | 8.2% | 57.1% | +28000 |
| Benjamin Taylor | $8,100 | 0.7% | 8.9% | 57.4% | +16000 |
| Seonghyeon Kim | $8,800 | 0.7% | 8.2% | 58.0% | +10000 |
| Luke List | $8,900 | 0.7% | 6.1% | 48.6% | +8500 |
| Sepp Straka | $9,100 | 0.7% | 8.3% | 53.2% | +9000 |
| David Lingmerth | $8,800 | 0.7% | 8.4% | 53.8% | +11000 |
| Padraig Harrington | $8,300 | 0.7% | 7.9% | 51.8% | +11000 |
| Garrick Higgo | $8,700 | 0.6% | 6.4% | 49.5% | +11000 |
| Scott Piercy | $8,100 | 0.6% | 8.0% | 56.8% | +16000 |
| Davis Thompson | $9,500 | 0.6% | 6.5% | 49.0% | +5000 |
| Mark Hubbard | $8,400 | 0.6% | 7.9% | 56.2% | +13000 |
| Chesson Hadley | $7,800 | 0.5% | 8.0% | 56.7% | +21000 |
| Callum Tarren | $8,000 | 0.5% | 6.4% | 49.9% | +16000 |
| Justin Lower | $7,600 | 0.5% | 7.2% | 55.1% | +25000 |
| Greyson Sigg | $8,000 | 0.5% | 6.9% | 54.8% | +16000 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | $9,700 | 0.5% | 4.1% | 46.4% | +5500 |
| Patton Kizzire | $8,600 | 0.5% | 5.4% | 49.4% | +10000 |
| Akshay Bhatia | $8,200 | 0.5% | 5.5% | 49.2% | +10000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Valero Texas Open
Unsurprisingly, Taylor Montgomery (+2800) is a value in my model because he always tends to be. He's a lights-out putter who nukes it off the tee. Last week at the WGC-Match Play, he had good iron play, which is always noteworthy because that's his primary weakness.
Alexander Noren (+4800) and Andrew Putnam (+5000) are short-game gurus and are undervalued, via the model. On the flip side, Ryan Fox (+5000) pummels the ball and is a good iron player but is also undervalued. It's a nice week to pepper the mid-range, and these three names make sense.
Early-week long-shot values include Beau Hossler (+9000) and Patrick Rodgers (+12000).
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Valero Texas Open
All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Tyrrell Hatton (FanDuel Salary: $12,000 | Golf betting odds: +1300) - Tyrrell Hatton is, rightfully, the favorite and the highest-salaried golfer of the week. He's my model's preferred pick to win the whole thing -- albeit at 6.5%. That's not must-play territory. However, he is the best process play. Hatton ranks first over the past 50 rounds in strokes gained: tee to green and is top-10 in both ball-striking stats. The lone downside is a lack of course history, which isn't a particular issue at TPC San Antonio anyway. I think Rickie Fowler makes sense, too, as he is trying to play his way into The Masters, yet that may simply take some popularity away from Hatton.
Matt Kuchar ($10,600 | +2800) - When the field looks like it does, it's always an option to go a little more balanced, and we can get access to someone with great course form (three straight top-15s in his past three starts) who still shows upside at courses when success with the driver isn't an absolute must. Kuchar showed up well in the WGC-Match Play last week and -- despite missing the cut at THE PLAYERS -- striped the irons there.
Others to Consider:
Rickie Fowler ($11,700 | +2000) - Trending up in a big way and needs a win. Should be aggressive this week.
Taylor Montgomery ($11,300 | +2800) - Solid win equity but better bet at long odds than as a core play; great differentiation stud play, though.
Ben Griffin ($10,000 | +4100) - Fits a balanced build; top-10 in both short-game stats; 23rd T2G.
Mid-Range Picks
Alexander Noren ($9,900 | +4800) - The second-best combined short game stats in the field over the past 50 rounds belong to Noren (trailing just Andrew Putnam, who is someone else to consider this week for DFS and betting purposes). Noren has not played here in the past, but again, this is not such a demanding course that course history is super predictive. Noren has had good iron play in his past two starts despite weak finishes, which is a sign things are still clicking along for him.
Nick Taylor ($9,500 | +5000) - Seventh in the field in strokes gained: tee to green, Nick Taylor is actually sixth in strokes gained: fairway through green, which just removes off-the-tee play from the equation. He is a good fit for TPC San Antonio and is in better form now than he has been during recent starts at the course, which include two missed cuts and two finishes outside the top-50. It's a great salary for the profile.
Others to Consider:
Ryan Fox ($9,900 | +5000) - Distance can help him separate; 13th in the field T2G overall.
Sam Ryder ($9,400 | +5500) - Gains with the putter every week; long-term irons are still top-40.
Beau Hossler ($9,200 | +9000) - Owns the 28th-ranked short game; four straight made cuts here at a course that suits his game.
Low-Salaried Picks
Robby Shelton ($9,000 | +10000) - Shelton pairs good irons (17th) with wedges (10th) but lacks standout stats off the tee (103rd) and on the greens (91st), which can limit pure upside. With that being said, he's missed two straight cuts due to bad putting, putting worse than he usually shows. That's reduced the salary and gives us an opportunity to roster someone with three top-25s in 2023 in weaker fields (i.e. fields comparable to this one).
Patrick Rodgers ($8,600 | +12000) - The case for Rodgers is usually pretty easy: he's a great overall player...except with the irons (86th). Irons are the most important stat for a lot of reasons, but he's not an abject failure there, and he makes up for it by ranking 32nd or better in the other three strokes gained departments. Rodgers, in weaker fields, gets bumped up a lot as a result.
Others to Consider:
Ryan Palmer ($8,500 | +8500) - A Texan who ranks 27th in the field in T2G and who has six top-25s here in 12 starts.
Ben Taylor ($8,100 | +16000) - An elite putter with top-55 T2G stats.
Peter Malnati ($7,300 | +28000) - Four straight missed cuts: three on the number and the other by two shots; 11th in combined short game.
