Wimbledon Men's Semifinals Betting Guide: Friday 7/14/23
Perhaps the most revered of the four Grand Slams, we're nearing the end of another fantastic Wimbledon. What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
The tournament continues on Friday morning. How should we bet the men's semifinals on Day 12?
Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+118)
Over 36.5 Total Match Games (-112)
With just four men left standing, Novak Djokovic is a -210 favorite to win the tournament, which doesn't come as any surprise.
He's won each of the last four Wimbledon titles and is on an absurd 33-match win streak at this event. Djokovic already has the 2023 Australian Open and French Open trophies secured, and if he can win Wimbledon, the elusive Calendar Slam that he came close to getting in 2021 will be within his reach at this year's US Open.
Even with Jannik Sinner priced as a +430 underdog, it's hard to see him taking three of five from Djokovic.
However, Sinner did go the distance with Novak in last year's quarterfinals, and he's played well in this year's edition. Sinner's dropped just two sets in these championships, and even in those two four-setters, he won over 80% of his first-serve points and faced a combined nine break-chance points.
Additionally, Djokovic hasn't been flawless, going four sets against Hubert Hurkacz and Andrey Rublev in the last two rounds.
Despite Sinner making deep runs in back-to-back Wimbledons, he's facing a seven-time winner of this event, and Tennis Abstract projects Djokovic winning 77.4% of the time.
But Sinner already proved last year that he can make things difficult on Djokovic, and we shouldn't be surprised if he's able to snag at least a set. It's for that reason that backing Novak to win while dropping a set might be the best way to get some value out of a Djokovic win, and along the same lines, if this match goes beyond three sets, the over on total match games has a good chance to hit, as well.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev
Carlos Alcaraz -4.5 Games (-102)
While I wouldn't count out Daniil Medvedev completely in this match, it really feels like we're going to get the Djokovic-Carlos Alcaraz final that most expected at the start of the tournament.
Medvedev deserves credit for problem-solving against feel-good story Christopher Eubanks in the quarterfinals, eventually dialing up a whopping 28 aces, but the margins were incredibly thin before Eubanks ran out of gas in the final set. If the fourth set tiebreak goes a little differently, we could be talking about Eubanks in this semifinal instead.
Meanwhile, Alcaraz faced just one break point in a straight-sets win over World No. 6 Holger Rune in the quarterfinals, and he dispatched one of the best grass players on Tour, Matteo Berrettini, over four sets in the prior round.
Alcaraz is known for his dominance on clay, but he's quickly proving that he can dominate on all surfaces. He's a perfect 10-0 on grass this season and has lost a total of four matches overall.
Were this match on hard courts, that would theoretically even the playing field for Medvedev, but Alcaraz beat him in the Indian Wells final 6-3, 6-2 earlier this year. Medvedev did win their only other match -- which happened to come at Wimbledon -- but given that it happened in 2021 before Alcaraz was playing at this level, it's hard to read too much into that.
As a -260 favorite, there isn't any value in this Alcaraz moneyline, but at close to even odds, this is a great number to back him at a reasonable 4.5-game spread.
