Using numberFire's Power Rankings to Predict the 2016 World Series Champion
Division Series
Boston Red Sox over Cleveland Indians
This is a tough one for the Cleveland Indians for a bunch of reasons. Not only do they lose some gusto due to the injuries within their starting rotation, but they drew the worst possible card for their division-series opponent. This eliminates Cleveland, even though they enter the playoffs as numberFire's fourth-ranked team.
If Cleveland's starters can simply be respectable, though, and make this a battle of the bullpens, it's pretty clear which side would hold the advantage. Craig Kimbrel's fastball lost some zip in September with an average velocity of 96.9 miles per hour, down from 97.4 before that. He finished the final month with a 4.61 SIERA, and the Indians have both Cody Allen and Andrew Miller to fire as necessary. Cleveland's down in the power rankings, but that doesn't mean this is close to a sure thing.
Toronto Blue Jays over Texas Rangers
We've seen this script before, and we can only hope for a moment as ill what this series produced last year.
Another similarity to last year is the Texas Rangers' low power ranking. They enter as numberFire's 16th-ranked team, the lowest of any squad that made the playoffs. Their plus-eight run differential was just the third-best mark in their own division, and the Blue Jays topped them by 85 runs in that department. This makes their 95-67 record appear a bit fluky, especially when you consider their Pythagorean win-loss of 82-80.
One key element here not factored into the power rankings is the return of Shin-Soo Choo. Choo was limited to 210 plate appearances this year, but in that sample, he had a hard-hit rate of 43.2% and a 9.8% soft-hit rate. If the Rangers are able to keep up their winning ways and give the power rankings the nah wave, Choo could be a big reason why.
Washington Nationals over Los Angeles Dodgers
Similar to Cleveland-Boston series, this one is tough. The Los Angeles Dodgers scorched the ball down the stretch and got their rotation healthy, and they enter the playoffs fifth in the power rankings. They just run into the third-ranked Washington Nationals.
A pivotal game in this series will likely be Game 3, the first in Los Angeles. There, Gio Gonzalez is expected to get the ball for the Nationals against Kenta Maeda for the Dodgers. Not only does Gonzalez have a 3.45 SIERA since the start of August, but the Dodgers finished the regular season dead last in wRC+ against lefties. If the Dodgers can't snag one of the first two games in Washington, this series could be done before it even gets back to Clayton Kershaw for a second time.
Chicago Cubs over San Francisco Giants
Finally, we get to peep the national darlings in the Cubs. Although the Giants put up a stiff test, sitting seventh in the power rankings, it's not quite enough to derail this story just yet.
Further, these power rankings don't reflect home field, and that will be a major factor in the Cubs' favor. They had a 2.72 ERA at home this year, easily the best in baseball. The Dodgers were second at 2.97, and no other team was below 3.40. The Cubs' ERA jumps to 3.60 on the road -- still the second-best mark in the league -- but this team will be a hard one to topple as long as they've got the ivy behind them.