Fantasy Baseball: 5 Under-the-Radar Pitchers to Target in 2017

Jon Gray, P, Colorado Rockies

ESPN Ownership: 32.9%

Jon Gray? Really? A Colorado Rockies pitcher?

Now, hear this one out.

This isn’t just any Rockies pitcher, but one with the pedigree of a top-five draft pick. So why is Gray worth monitoring? It starts with strikeouts. Among 75 qualified pitchers in the second half, Gray ranked 8th in second-half strikeout rate at 10.2 K/9. That mark was better than Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, Madison Bumgarner, Chris Sale and Carlos Carrasco -- the next five guys down the list.

Now Gray didn’t have an overwhelmingly great second half as he posted a 4.54 ERA after the break (3.18 FIP). But stick with us for a second here. In the first half, Gray had a 48.5% ground-ball rate, and that tumbled to 38.1% after the break. In the first half, he fanned 9.6 batters per nine innings, walked 2.9 per nine and had an ERA of 4.67, and in the second, he had a 10.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and the aforementioned ERA.

What’s more confusing yet was that he allowed more home runs per nine in the first half (1.2) than the second (0.7) despite the flip-flop in batted-ball tendencies. It’s doesn’t make a ton of sense from an analysis standpoint, but at the very least there appears to be the ability to mix strikeouts, grounders and low walk numbers. That’s key for any pitcher, but it becomes vital for someone making roughly half his starts at Coors Field.

Interestingly enough, his ground-ball rate was much better at home this year (46%) than on the road (41%), and opponents hit just .235/.303/.391 against him at Coors. That makes it seem like the biggest bugaboo in his path to fantasy legitimacy -- Coors Field -- is something he’s already been able to contain early in his career.