Fantasy Baseball: Which Mets Pitcher Is the Best Bet for a Rebound?
Matt Harvey
Why He Should Be on Your Roster
Harvey struggled during his 92 2/3 innings in 2016 -- he posted career worsts in ERA (4.86), WHIP (1.47), FIP (3.47), strikeouts per nine innings (7.4) and hits allowed per nine innings (10.8). However, we found out after the fact that he was dealing with his injury as early as spring training last season.
When the Dark Knight is healthy and taking the mound every fifth day, though, he's been one of baseball's most dominant pitchers.
In the 427 big-league innings he compiled from 2012 to 2015, he posted a 2.53 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 2.65 FIP, fanning 9.5 per nine innings (K/9) while allowing just 7.0 hits per nine. His return from Tommy John surgery in 2015 was especially encouraging -- his 2.71 ERA, 3.05 FIP and 4.4 fWAR all ranked among the top-20 qualified pitchers that year.
Why There's Reason for Caution
Well, he's gone under the knife for serious surgeries quite a bit for a 28-year-old hurler expected to be a major part of a big-league rotation.
Risk -- from both a real-life and fantasy perspective -- was already high after Tommy John, and it elevated after throwing a combined 216 innings between the regular season and playoffs in 2015. That risk goes up even more after his latest procedure.
Based on the pitchers who have had thoracic outlet syndrome surgically corrected in the past, there's really no comparable for Harvey with regard to the type of pitcher he is and the spot he's currently at in his career.
It wouldn't be surprising to see him buck the trend in 2017, but there's a ton of risk. There could be a high reward involved, but he's definitely not the safest bet to rebound this season among the trio of pitchers we're discussing here.
