Fantasy Baseball: Which Mets Pitcher Is the Best Bet for a Rebound?
Steven Matz
Why He Should Be on Your Roster
The last of New York's young and highly-touted starting pitchers to make his MLB debut (June 28th, 2015), Matz is valuable because of what makes him different from his fellow rotation mates.
His counterparts are all right-handed and throw fastballs in the upper-90s. Matz is the only hurler to throw from the left side, and he produced an average fastball velocity of 93.6 miles per hour in 2016. Although he only has 168 total innings under his belt in the big leagues, the southpaw has shown an ability to succeed and adjust to the competition.
| Year | IP | Record | ERA | FIP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 35 2/3 | 4-0 | 2.27 | 3.61 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| 2016 | 132 1/3 | 9-8 | 3.40 | 3.39 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 2.8 |
The overall numbers from last year are a bit inflated because he got off to the worst possible start.
His season debut came on April 11th against the Miami Marlins, and it resulted in him lasting just 1 2/3 innings after surrendering 7 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks. Matz's ERA stood at 37.80 after that outing, so he was fighting an uphill battle from the start in order to normalize his numbers.
In fact, if you throw his first start of the year out, his ERA (2.96) and FIP (3.26) look a lot better than where they actually ended up. He showed a rather consistent ability to go deep into games in 2016 -- 6 starts of at least 7-plus innings and only 2 outings with fewer than 5 frames -- while also producing quality starts on a regular basis (14).
Why There's Reason for Caution
Matz has been prone to injury since the moment the Mets drafted him.
New York selected him straight out of high school in 2009, but he didn't even get to throw his first professional pitch until 2012 because of Tommy John surgery. Even after landing in the big leagues, he's dealt with multiple trips to the disabled list (DL).
Not even three weeks after he made his MLB debut, the Mets placed him on the DL because of a partial tear of his lat muscle, forcing him to miss two months before getting activated in September. He didn't have to worry about any workload restrictions during their run to the World Series, but it also prevented New York from helping him take on more of a full workload in the coming seasons.
While the left-hander didn't actually go on the DL last season until the end of August, the bone chip in his elbow and some shoulder issues forced him to miss starts periodically throughout the year, which isn't a characteristic any fantasy owner wants in one of their starting pitchers.
He's yet to break the 150-inning plateau as a professional, and after last year, manager Terry Collins and the coaching staff will likely be extra cautious with a pitcher like Matz. So, that could mean skipping starts again, but also a quick hook that could prevent the southpaw from consistently getting deep into games.
