What's the Impact of the 5 Biggest Year-to-Year MLB Farm System Ranking Dips Since 2011?

Miami Marlins: -22 after 2013

The previous two teams experienced abrupt drops in organizational rankings for slightly different reasons, and neither was overwhelmingly positive.

The Marlins’ drop between 2013 and 2014, however, came in the most idyllic fashion for which a team can hope. A boatload of top-ranked prospects not only exceeded their rookie limits, but also became staples for the franchise in the years ahead. The top 10 list heading into the 2013 season scarily resembles a 2016 lineup card.

In their most used lineup last year, the Marlins trotted out Marcell Ozuna hitting second and playing center field, Christian Yelich playing left field and hitting third, J.T. Realmuto in the seven spot behind the dish, and Adeiny Hechavarria hitting eighth and playing shortstop. On that 2013 prospect ranking, Yelich ranked second, Ozuna fifth, Hechavarria seventh and Realmuto eighth.

All four of those players exceeded their rookie limits in 2013. All four were everyday starters for the 2016 Marlins.

Not to mention that their top-ranked prospect in 2013 was a man by the name of Jose Fernandez. All he did in his rookie season was become an All-Star, win the National League Rookie of the Year award and finish third in the National League Cy Young voting.

Two others on the list, Justin Nicolino (ranked sixth) and Adam Conley (ranked 10th) also broke into the majors, albeit two years later in 2015, and cracked the starting rotation in 2016.

In 41 percent of the team’s games this season, over half of the nine players in the starting lineup could be found just on that 2013 Baseball America top-10 prospect list. That is an astounding major league hit-rate for one group.

With Dee Gordon’s suspension and Giancarlo Stanton’s inability to remain healthy, the Marlins had just five qualified hitters this season. The only one not on that 2013 listing was Martin Prado.

Yes, the club hasn’t posted a winning season during this time, but it’s not as if these players only got an opportunity because the rest of the roster was slop. These aren’t pity starts. These are borderline stars.

Fernandez, whose life was tragically cut short this September, holds the best strikeout rate for a starter in the history of the game. His 2.44 FIP is the best for a starter in the live-ball era, Ozuna was a 2016 All-Star and Realmuto ranked third among all catchers in fWAR (3.5). Hechavarria, who is by no means a menace at the plate, is a respectably solid defensive shortstop, and ranked 10th at the position by FanGraphs' defense metric.

Just for good measure, the third-ranked minor leaguer on that list, Andrew Heaney, was flipped in a trade that netted Gordon, another everyday starter for the current team.

Also listed was Jake Marisnick, ranked fourth, who was traded to the Houston Astros and has played in 251 games in the last two seasons for the Astros.

Summary:

The Marlins' farm system has not been ranked higher than 25th after dropping 22 spots in 2013. Netting two-thirds of your rotation and half of your everyday position players is an incredible return for one top 10 list.

It hasn’t turned into dominant seasons, but it has at least bolstered the lineup with quality (and in many cases above-average) talent around the diamond and on the mound. Those players don’t fall out of trees.

Impact on 2017/Beyond:

It’s all fine and dandy to find the majority of your starting lineup from a prospect list, but that’s not the goal. The goal, before even winning a World Series, is to make the playoffs. It’s been 13 years since the Marlins have done so, the longest drought in the National League. These former prospects turned everyday starters have allowed the team to go out and spend to try and push them over the edge into the playoffs.

They made a push for star closer Kenley Jansen, and but ultimately ended up with Dan Straily, Edinson Volquez and side-armer Brad Ziegler this offseason. In more ways than one, the loss of Fernandez was devastating, both for a city that saw so much in him, and for a team that needs his talent now more than ever.

If these additions don’t pan out, the window of opportunity may be closed in Miami sooner than expected. That’s a disappointing notion for a team with three All-Star caliber outfielders all below the age of 28.