What's the Impact of the 5 Biggest Year-to-Year MLB Farm System Ranking Dips Since 2011?
Seattle Mariners: -23 after 2013
Entering the 2013 season, the Seattle Mariners boasted the second best farm system in baseball, but their crop of prospects ranked 25th in the majors the following season. What happened?
The Mariners’ story is a combination of the factors previously mentioned.
Four of their top 10 prospects were called up throughout the course of the season, with prospect Mike Zunino being the most notable name at the time. The former Florida Gator has since caught 350 games over four seasons for the Mariners without much success, hitting .195/.262/.370 while striking out far too often (32.4 percent strikeout rate) and not walking enough (6.0 percent walk rate).
The 2013 season was also the beginning of a precipitous drop for Danny Hultzen -- the team’s former second overall pick -- from one of the game's best prospects to an injury-riddled mess.
Hultzen was Baseball America’s 29th-ranked prospect heading into the season which he ultimately missed the majority of due to shoulder injuries. That led to offseason surgery on a torn labrum and rotator cuff. He began the season in Triple-A, the closest he has ever been to the majors, but has pitched just 10 innings of minor league ball after being sidelined for all of 2014.
Carter Capps broke the rookie limit for innings in 2013 and threw less than 100 innings before being sent to the Miami Marlins that offseason for Logan Morrison. LoMo posted a 100 OPS+ in two seasons for the Mariners.
Three infielders from that top-10 list entered the majors that season, including eighth overall prospect, Stefen Romero. He fell off the top 10 that year, and was worth -1.9 wins for the Mariners in 233 plate appearances over three seasons before being released this past November.
Nick Franklin, ranked fourth, was a 2.2-win player in his rookie season before being included in a deal that brought Austin Jackson to Seattle.
Shortstop Brad Miller also posted starter-caliber numbers as a rookie, with a .736 OPS. He ranked ninth among all rookies with a 2.0 WAR, while Franklin’s 2.2 WAR ranked sixth. Miller was eventually sent in a package with Morrison to Tampa Bay for a return headlined by Nate Karns.
Summary:
Seattle graduated a lot of talent that never quite panned out. The best outcomes were trading Franklin and Capps, which helped them acquire a grand total of three average seasons of play between Jackson and Morrison. They didn’t turn top prospects into stars, or even into serviceable big leaguers.
No player from that top 10 has turned into a quality big leaguer, and the farm system has never recovered. After that 2013 season, the organization’s prospects have been ranked 25, 24, 28 and 23.
Impact on 2017/Beyond:
With a depleted farm system after 2013, Taijuan Walker jumped up to the premier spot on the top 10 list in 2014. And when the team traded him and Ketel Marte to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger this offseason, those two additions became the only part of the current roster to result from that second-ranked farm system.
Due to the lack of farm system firepower, the Mariners recently had to shell out a combined $296 million for 10 years of Robinson Cano and 4 years of Nelson Cruz.
