Fantasy Baseball: 10 Starting Pitchers Expected to See an Increase in Production
Lance McCullers, Houston Astros
2016 nF Score: -1.58
2017 Projected nF Score: 0.92
Projected Boost: 2.50
| Year | IP | W | K | BB | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 81 | 6 | 106 | 45 | 3.22 | 1.54 |
| 2017 (Projected) | 156 | 12 | 179 | 72 | 3.41 | 1.42 |
The biggest key for Lance McCullers this season is to just stay healthy for the Houston Astros. Since the only addition they made to the rotation was signing Charlie Morton to a two-year, $14 million deal (despite throwing just 17.1 innings last year), it's important for him and Dallas Keuchel to lead the way.
He posted the exact same ERA as he did in 125.2 innings as a rookie during 2015 (3.22), but the year-by-year comparison of his Fielding Independent Pitching (3.26 in 2015 to 3.00 in 2016) shows he dealt with tougher luck in his sophomore campaign.
That can be evidenced by a huge increase in BABIP allowed (.288 in 2015 to .383 in 2016) despite a 10.8% rise in ground balls and a 3.5% drop in hard contact.
The key for McCullers will be his control. His 10.23 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) shows his ability to miss bats, but his walks allowed per nine innings (BB/9) jumped from 3.08 in 2015 to 5.00 last season (albeit in a smaller sample size).
Current Fantasy Draft Information:
As the 42nd starting pitcher coming off the board, McCullers can be put on your roster at the beginning of the 14th round in 12-team leagues, according to National Fantasy Baseball Championship. His health and potential workload are concerns (along with his control), but this is where upside is valued the most in drafts.
That strikeout potential has been there his entire professional career, and with a deep Astros lineup behind him, he's got a great chance to also rack up wins.
