Re-Drafting the 2005 MLB Draft Using Advanced Analytics
What Should've Happened
Now organized by WAR, this is how things would've played out for the first 10 picks.
| Pick | Team | Player | Position | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Ryan Braun | OF | 44.4 |
| 2 | Kansas City Royals | Troy Tulowitzki | SS | 43.7 |
| 3 | Seattle Mariners | Andrew McCutchen | OF | 37.5 |
| 4 | Washington Nationals | Ryan Zimmerman | 3B | 33.8 |
| 5 | Milwaukee Brewers | Alex Gordon | 3B/OF | 32.6 |
| 6 | Toronto Blue Jays | Jacoby Ellsbury | OF | 29.1 |
| 7 | Colorado Rockies | Justin Upton | OF | 26.7 |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | Colby Rasmus | OF | 18.3 |
| 9 | New York Mets | Jay Bruce | OF | 16.0 |
| 10 | Detroit Tigers | Clay Buchholz | RHP | 15.9 |
Using WAR, we still see half of the same players, including four of the top five choices. These players are Braun, Tulowitzki, Zimmerman, Gordon and Upton, who have united for 18 All-Star appearances, 11 Silver Sluggers, 7 Gold Gloves and 1 MVP.
At the third pick, Andrew McCutchen is the only player to slide into the top five from outside of it, and even the top 10 at that. The 11th overall pick is a five-time All-Star, four-time Silver Slugger and the 2013 NL MVP.
Jacoby Ellsbury, the actual 23rd pick in the draft, isn't an MVP but he is a two-time World Series champion. And, in 11 seasons, he's accumulated 474 RBI and 321 stolen bases to go along with one All-Star bid, one Gold Glove and one Silver Slugger.
Upton doesn't slide too far, dropping to seventh. He's followed by Colby Rasmus, Jay Bruce and Clay Buchholz -- all of whom are of roughly the same value, according to WAR. Whereas Rasmus and Bruce have produced 156 and 242 home runs, respectively, the two-time All-Star and one-time World Series champion has 81 wins in 188 starts.
