Re-Drafting the 2006 MLB Draft Using Advanced Analytics
What Should've Happened
With all that's been proven over the years, how would things be different?
| Pick | Team | Player | Position | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Clayton Kershaw | LHP | 53.7 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | Evan Longoria | 3B | 47.4 |
| 3 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Max Scherzer | RHP | 37.7 |
| 4 | San Francisco Giants | Tim Lincecum | RHP | 28.4 |
| 5 | New York Yankees | Ian Kennedy | RHP | 16.2 |
| 6 | Cincinnati Reds | Drew Stubbs | OF | 11.4 |
| 7 | Seattle Mariners | Brandon Morrow | RHP | 10.8 |
| 8 | Detroit Tigers | Andrew Miller | LHP | 10.1 |
| 9 | Kansas City Royals | Luke Hochevar | RHP | 8.0 |
| 10 | New York Yankees | Joba Chamberlain | RHP | 6.8 |
When we shift our view to see through the eyes of WAR, there isn't a giant difference. Seven of the top-10 selections appear once again, and there are very marginal differences in where they would rank.
At the top is seventh overall pick Clayton Kershaw. In nine-plus seasons, the lefty has amassed a record of 127-61 in 265 starts while going to six All-Star Games and earning several honors. Chief among the many are his four ERA titles, three Cy Young awards and 2014 NL MVP.
Closest to Kershaw is the trio of Evan Longoria, Max Scherzer and Tim Lincecum, who have 11 All-Star showings, 4 Cy Youngs and 2 Silvers Sluggers between them.
Next in line are the serviceable Ian Kennedy and Drew Stubbs. The starting pitcher and outfielder have zero All-Star appearances between them, but each have a career WAR above 10.0.
Of the final four players, only Andrew Miller has proven himself as a notable MLB arm. It took a while, but after Miller found his role with the New York Yankees in 2015, he's been a top-notch bullpen asset. As a result, he won the 2015 AL Rivera Reliever Award and the 2016 ALCS MVP.
