Re-Drafting the 2011 MLB Draft Using Advanced Analytics
What Should've Happened
What would happen if teams used advanced analytics to re-draft the top players?
| Pick | Team | Player | Position | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pirates | Jose Fernandez | RHP | 13.9 |
| 2 | Mariners | Anthony Rendon | 2B/3B | 13.4 |
| 3 | Diamondbacks | Gerrit Cole | RHP | 12.7 |
| 4 | Orioles | Francisco Lindor | SS | 11.9 |
| 5 | Royals | George Springer | OF | 10.5 |
| 6 | Nationals | Sonny Gray | RHP | 9.0 |
| 7 | Diamondbacks | Joe Panik | 2B | 8.6 |
| 8 | Indians | Jackie Bradley | OF | 8.0 |
| 9 | Cubs | Kolten Wong | 2B | 5.1 |
| 10 | Padres | Joe Ross | RHP | 3.6 |
With 38 wins and 589 strikeouts in 76 starts, the late Jose Fernandez would take Cole's place as the number-one overall player in this draft class. In just four seasons, the Cuban native won Rookie of the Year honors and made two trips to the All-Star Game.
Anthony Rendon, the only other player with a WAR higher than 13.0, has counted up 53 home runs, 232 RBI and one Silver Slugger in 504 games and 1,907 at-bats.
Cole only drops two spots to third overall. In his four-plus seasons in the majors, the righty has earned one bid to the All-Star Game along with 48 wins in 98 starts.
With double-digit WARs, Francisco Lindor and George Springer complete the top five. While Springer has 72 career homers in 360 games, the younger Lindor has one All-Star appearance, a Gold Glove and Platinum Glove in two-plus seasons in the bigs.
On the next tier is the trio of Sonny Gray, Joe Panik and Jackie Bradley, who have played in one midseason classic apiece. In four seasons, Gray has a record of 38-31. Meanwhile, Panik and Bradley have collected a total of 61 home runs and 298 RBI.
In the 9 and 10 spots, Kolten Wong and Joe Ross lack any notable awards, but, nonetheless, have appeared in 466 combined games for the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals, respectively.
