Who Were the Luckiest and Unluckiest Starting Pitchers in April?
Pitchers Not Living Up to Their Peripherals
Getting off to a rough start is always frustrating, and running into some tough luck never helps. The below 15 pitchers all have an ERA at least one full run higher than where their SIERA currently sits.
| Rank | Player | K% | BB% | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | SIERA | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Anderson | 17.5% | 8.0% | 2.67 | .304 | 57.7% | 7.71 | 4.63 | 3.08 |
| 2 | Kenta Maeda | 24.1% | 5.4% | 2.42 | .306 | 63.5% | 6.58 | 3.67 | 2.91 |
| 3 | Jeff Samardzija | 25.9% | 7.4% | 1.72 | .321 | 60.1% | 6.32 | 3.49 | 2.83 |
| 4 | Adam Wainwright | 22.0% | 5.9% | 1.08 | .439 | 67.0% | 6.12 | 3.57 | 2.55 |
| 5 | Bronson Arroyo | 16.4% | 8.2% | 2.16 | .260 | 56.4% | 7.20 | 4.82 | 2.38 |
| 6 | Kevin Gausman | 13.6% | 11.6% | 1.80 | .350 | 67.8% | 7.50 | 5.51 | 1.99 |
| 7 | Jhoulys Chacin | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.06 | .304 | 59.0% | 5.82 | 4.20 | 1.62 |
| 8 | Jake Arrieta | 27.6% | 6.5% | 1.86 | .324 | 71.9% | 4.66 | 3.22 | 1.44 |
| 9 | Bartolo Colon | 19.2% | 5.8% | 1.55 | .306 | 64.5% | 5.59 | 4.16 | 1.43 |
| 10 | John Lackey | 23.1% | 6.9% | 2.10 | .286 | 66.2% | 5.10 | 3.68 | 1.42 |
| 11 | Lance McCullers | 29.0% | 7.3% | 1.24 | .342 | 75.6% | 4.34 | 2.93 | 1.41 |
| 12 | Carlos Martinez | 29.8% | 10.7% | 1.26 | .333 | 70.3% | 4.71 | 3.45 | 1.26 |
| 13 | Felix Hernandez | 18.6% | 2.5% | 2.03 | .388 | 84.3% | 4.73 | 3.49 | 1.24 |
| 14 | Charlie Morton | 24.6% | 6.4% | 0.96 | .338 | 74.1% | 4.50 | 3.37 | 1.13 |
| 15 | Danny Salazar | 33.3% | 11.1% | 0.93 | .354 | 71.4% | 4.34 | 3.24 | 1.10 |
Once again, we sometimes can't look too much into these kinds of numbers. Any way you slice it, Kevin Gausman, Bronson Arroyo and Tyler Anderson just didn't pitch well over the past month.
The contrast between this group and the one before is rather interesting, though.
The vast majority of these hurlers have inflated BABIPs and suppressed strand rates, along with inflated numbers in the homers allowed per nine innings department.
Looking at the data from this angle is an attempt to get a different vantage point while seeing potential value where the masses may not be looking.
So, not only should you feel a little more encouraged about what's ahead for Carlos Martinez, Kenta Maeda Lance McCullers and Danny Salazar, there's also reason to at least be somewhat intrigued by guys like Charlie Morton and Jeff Samardzija.
