Who Were the Luckiest and Unluckiest MLB Hitters in April?
Hitters With an Inflated BABIP
The league averaged a .291 BABIP with a 31.5% hard-hit rate in April. Each of the following 12 hitters surpassed that BABIP rather easily without the corresponding hard-hit rate that one would imagine was needed.
| Player | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | .409 | 25.4% | 49.3% | 25.4% | 25.7% |
| Brandon Drury | .394 | 25.4% | 47.8% | 26.9% | 26.9% |
| Starlin Castro | .386 | 14.7% | 49.3% | 36.0% | 32.0% |
| Brandon Phillips | .385 | 17.9% | 52.2% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| Xander Bogaerts | .365 | 22.2% | 54.0% | 23.8% | 22.2% |
| Chase Headley | .361 | 30.2% | 36.5% | 33.3% | 23.4% |
| J.T. Realmuto | .358 | 20.3% | 46.4% | 33.3% | 27.5% |
| Tyler Saladino | .341 | 20.5% | 47.7% | 31.8% | 28.3% |
| Lorenzo Cain | .339 | 22.2% | 47.6% | 30.2% | 22.2% |
| Odubel Herrera | .317 | 20.6% | 55.6% | 23.8% | 27.0% |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | .313 | 18.5% | 43.1% | 38.5% | 26.5% |
| Eddie Rosario | .313 | 13.8% | 60.0% | 26.2% | 22.4% |
A lot has been made about Cesar Hernandez's power binge to start 2017 (23.5% homer-to-fly-ball rate in April), but it appears he enjoyed quite a bit of good fortune -- especially since his hard-hit rate was actually slightly below what is was last season (26.0%).
Xander Bogaerts is potentially the most concerning hitter in this group -- yes, the line drives are up, but it doesn't help that his hard-hit rate was down nearly eight percentage points, while his ground-ball rate has increased by nearly nine percentage points. After seemingly finding his power stroke in 2016 with a career-high 21 homers and an Isolated Power (ISO) of .154, he entered May with no dingers and a .054 ISO.
Lorenzo Cain is probably the perfect case study for this kind of exercise, though.
Through his first 56 plate appearances, he was slashing .356/.482/.400 with a .457 BABIP despite a 17.1% hard-hit rate. He's improved on that last metric a bit, but his BABIP has come tumbling down and his triple slash settled in at .272/.385/.358 to finish the month.
While it's important to see how a hitter is performing in the categories that matter for fantasy baseball, it's helpful to investigate how they landed there to see exactly how sustainable it is -- and to prevent you from overpaying in any potential trade.
