Which Teams are Overperforming and Underperforming So Far this MLB Season?
Underperformers
With 18 teams below, evidently there have been more underperformers than overperformers. Who has disappointed the most so far?
| Team | nERD | Run Diff/G | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 0.46 | -1.16 | +1.62 |
| San Diego Padres | -0.80 | -1.60 | +0.80 |
| Miami Marlins | 0.07 | -0.59 | +0.66 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0.90 | 0.30 | +0.60 |
| San Francisco Giants | -0.96 | -1.43 | +0.47 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0.58 | 0.16 | +0.42 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0.65 | 0.29 | +0.36 |
| New York Yankees | 1.85 | 1.51 | +0.34 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0.19 | -0.09 | +0.28 |
| Atlanta Braves | -0.50 | -0.77 | +0.27 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.00 | 0.80 | +0.20 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0.21 | 0.03 | +0.18 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.44 | 1.31 | +0.13 |
| Los Angeles Angels | -0.21 | -0.34 | +0.13 |
| Cleveland Indians | 0.50 | 0.38 | +0.12 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0.62 | 0.53 | +0.09 |
| Houston Astros | 1.31 | 1.23 | +0.08 |
| Kansas City Royals | -0.90 | -0.97 | +0.07 |
If we're splitting hairs, we could say that the St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals aren't really underperformers. Rather, the narrow difference between their nERD and run differential says that their play has produced very near the expected results. For the Cardinals (21-15) and Astros (27-12), that's a good thing, but for the Royals (16-21) they'd rather things be different.
At a nERD of 1.85, the New York Yankees are the best team to be labeled an underperformer. Even with the league's third-best win percentage (.629), the advanced metrics tell us that their record could be even better.
As for the single worst team on the underperformers list, that goes to the San Francisco Giants. Through 40 games, the typical National League powerhouse is just 16-24 and fourth in the NL West. According to our power rankings, they'd still be the league's second-worst team, but by a small margin on a per-game basis.
The Oakland Athletics are the most underperforming team early on this season. They've won just 16 games and have a serious negative run differential while nERD tells us that they should have a positive one. Despite the record, we have them 11th in our rankings. So watch for the A's to make a move sooner rather than later.
