Who Were the Luckiest and Unluckiest Starting Pitchers in June?
Pitchers Outperforming Their Peripherals
The below table displays the 15 pitchers who outperformed their SIERA the most in June. As we can see, looking at this kind of data can bring us all different kinds of hurlers with various styles.
| Rank | Player | K% | BB% | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | SIERA | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jason Vargas | 14.2% | 5.6% | 0.66 | .262 | 88.5% | 1.98 | 5.00 | -3.02 |
| 2 | Ben Lively | 8.0% | 7.4% | 0.93 | .282 | 76.9% | 3.72 | 6.12 | -2.40 |
| 3 | Ariel Miranda | 14.0% | 7.6% | 1.77 | .167 | 86.8% | 3.32 | 5.70 | -2.38 |
| 4 | Alex Meyer | 25.0% | 14.0% | 0.56 | .238 | 83.8% | 2.25 | 4.62 | -2.37 |
| 5 | Jose Quintana | 25.0% | 10.0% | 0.59 | .250 | 89.4% | 1.78 | 4.01 | -2.23 |
| 6 | Tyler Chatwood | 20.5% | 13.1% | 1.53 | .227 | 93.8% | 2.76 | 4.98 | -2.22 |
| 7 | Chase Anderson | 26.4% | 4.0% | 0.78 | .207 | 92.1% | 1.56 | 3.43 | -1.87 |
| 8 | Jason Hammel | 18.7% | 3.0% | 1.11 | .255 | 88.8% | 2.51 | 4.30 | -1.79 |
| 9 | Edinson Volquez | 22.6% | 13.7% | 0.50 | .200 | 70.7% | 3.28 | 4.98 | -1.70 |
| 10 | Mike Foltynewicz | 23.2% | 9.9% | 1.24 | .253 | 86.8% | 2.97 | 4.54 | -1.57 |
| 11 | Mike Fiers | 22.6% | 7.3% | 0.00 | .253 | 73.5% | 2.32 | 3.87 | -1.55 |
| 12 | Max Scherzer | 38.1% | 4.5% | 0.50 | .171 | 76.6% | 0.99 | 2.32 | -1.33 |
| 13 | Jose Urena | 14.9% | 7.1% | 0.81 | .252 | 69.6% | 3.78 | 5.07 | -1.29 |
| 14 | Scott Feldman | 19.1% | 6.6% | 0.99 | .283 | 82.1% | 2.97 | 4.25 | -1.28 |
| 15 | Jhoulys Chacin | 20.8% | 7.7% | 1.36 | .244 | 83.9% | 3.00 | 4.27 | -1.27 |
Walks...Walks Everywhere
Of the 15 hurlers highlighted, we have four with a walk rate that's 10.0% or above (and one at 9.9% thanks to Mike Foltynewicz).
This sub-group includes Alex Meyer, Jose Quintana, Tyler Chatwood, and Edinson Volquez. How have they been able to manage toward mostly solid results? Most of them have been doing the same things well.
Each did well in the BABIP department, as none of them had a number higher than .250. Chatwood was the only one with a homers allowed per nine innings rate (HR/9) that was higher than 0.59 (the average for June was 1.37), while Volquez was the only one with a strand rate below 83.0% (the average in June was 71.5%).
Another Successful Starter in Houston?
Even when things aren't going well for the Houston Astros, they are. Sure, they've got a big lead in the AL West, which makes everything a little easier, but no team is happy to see four starters originally slotted for their rotation on the disabled list.
The only man left standing (for now) through it all, though? That would be Mike Fiers, and he took advantage of his time in the spotlight.
The biggest difference in his performance was limiting the long ball. Through the end of May, his HR/9 rate was 3.08, but it currently sits at 1.94 on the season because he didn't give up a single dinger in June. That was powered by the fact that his fly-ball rate allowed (26.8%) and his hard-hit rate allowed (27.7%) were easily his best of any month this year.
This is certainly a recipe for success, but it'll also be interesting to see where the middle ground is for Fiers in this particular department.
Max Scherzer Is Just Disgusting
The fact that Max Scherzer is pitching this well shouldn't be breaking news, you guys. Despite that, it is necessary to point out the ridiculous month he just put together.
He's technically one of our overachievers based off the criteria used, but it's not like he'd be struggling if the above SIERA was what his ERA settled in at. The right-hander is striking out nearly half the hitters he's facing, is barely walking anybody, and is absolutely frightening to look at while he accomplishes it all.
His wOBA allowed has decreased by a significant margin each month, as has his fly-ball rate, while his ground-ball rate has seen a steady increase. So, yeah -- this guy was already at the top of the league, and he seems to be getting better. Yikes.
