Who Were the Luckiest and Unluckiest Starting Pitchers in July?
Pitchers Not Living Up to Their Peripherals
On the other end of the spectrum, the table below displays 15 hurlers who struggled through a rough July. According to their SIERA, though, they pitched much better than some of their traditional stats say.
| Rank | Player | K% | BB% | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | SIERA | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yu Darvish | 24.8% | 6.0% | 2.10 | .341 | 55.6% | 7.20 | 3.82 | 3.38 |
| 2 | James Shields | 14.5% | 10.5% | 2.88 | .329 | 58.2% | 9.00 | 5.66 | 3.34 |
| 3 | Clayton Richard | 15.6% | 5.7% | 1.53 | .419 | 64.7% | 7.36 | 4.17 | 3.19 |
| 4 | Wade Miley | 15.8% | 12.2% | 1.61 | .380 | 62.3% | 8.68 | 5.54 | 3.14 |
| 5 | Jon Gray | 23.1% | 6.0% | 1.40 | .405 | 61.5% | 6.66 | 3.89 | 2.77 |
| 6 | Carlos Rodon | 31.9% | 11.8% | 2.42 | .367 | 75.3% | 6.23 | 3.75 | 2.48 |
| 7 | Ivan Nova | 19.7% | 3.3% | 2.51 | .341 | 71.4% | 6.28 | 3.92 | 2.36 |
| 8 | Tim Adleman | 18.7% | 8.6% | 2.35 | .326 | 62.8% | 7.34 | 5.03 | 2.31 |
| 9 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 22.4% | 9.1% | 1.97 | .356 | 67.1% | 6.75 | 4.45 | 2.30 |
| 10 | Jesse Chavez | 17.8% | 9.4% | 2.31 | .347 | 70.6% | 6.94 | 5.04 | 1.90 |
| 11 | Jeff Hoffman | 11.2% | 10.4% | 1.67 | .322 | 58.1% | 8.00 | 6.10 | 1.90 |
| 12 | Jeff Samardzija | 22.3% | 3.1% | 1.48 | .341 | 64.7% | 5.64 | 3.75 | 1.89 |
| 13 | Anibal Sanchez | 20.8% | 5.0% | 0.98 | .353 | 64.3% | 5.53 | 4.16 | 1.37 |
| 14 | Carlos Martinez | 17.6% | 8.4% | 2.17 | .326 | 73.3% | 5.90 | 4.53 | 1.37 |
| 15 | Nick Pivetta | 23.6% | 6.9% | 1.98 | .209 | 59.7% | 5.45 | 4.09 | 1.36 |
So, We Meet Again
Jeff Samardzija hasn't had a great year for the San Francisco Giants, but he's actually been pretty good. If it feels like you've already heard that this season, it's because you have. And after taking a look at a few different areas, it looks like that .341 BABIP allowed -- his second-highest of any month this season -- is a big reason behind his struggles.
A lot of it has to do with his batted-ball profile. Check out his month-by-month progression in line-drive rate (LD%), ground-ball rate (GB%), fly-ball rate (FB%), and hard-hit rate (Hard%) this season.
| Month | LD% | GB% | FB% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 30.6% | 38.8% | 30.6% | 31.0% |
| May | 25.5% | 41.8% | 32.7% | 27.9% |
| June | 20.6% | 49.5% | 29.9% | 24.5% |
| July | 20.8% | 42.7% | 36.5% | 29.2% |
It's awesome that he's barely walking anyone, but that also means there are more opportunities for opposing hitters to do damage. In July, that didn't work out so well for Samardzija.
It's Still Catching Up to Him
Back in April, Baltimore Orioles southpaw hurler Wade Miley got off to a surprisingly fast start, posting a 2.32 ERA with a 29.7% strikeout rate though his first 31 innings. However, the signs of regression were there, mainly because of his 4.37 SIERA, 14.7% walk rate, and 9.6% swinging-strike rate.
Over his next 78.1 frames, he's posted a 6.89 ERA with a 15.2% strikeout rate. Those numbers are backed up with a 5.30 SIERA, 11.5% walk rate and 7.0% swinging-strike rate. And if we're looking at his progression from each month, it ain't pretty. His wOBA allowed has climbed each month so far this season, from .280 in April all the way up to .408 in July.
Yu Deserve a Change of Scenery
After allowing 10 runs in just 3.2 innings against the Miami Marlins on July 26th -- the first time he's allowed more than seven earned runs in a single start -- Yu Darvish will be making his next start as a member of the best team in baseball.
If only every hurler was that lucky, right?
Darvish had a dreadful July, but it didn't seem to impact his trade value all that much, and it's probably because of his peripherals. He still managed to post a 3.82 SIERA, which gave him the largest difference between his SIERA and ERA (7.20) among any qualified pitcher in the league.
Something else tells me that getting traded to the Dodgers -- who have a solid chance of not only getting to the World Series, but winning it -- may rejuvenate him moving forward. There's always the desire of finishing a year strong with free agency on the horizon, too.
