Who Were the Luckiest and Unluckiest MLB Hitters in July?
Hitters With a Suppressed BABIP
While the group we just dissected experienced some good fortune despite not having all of the peripherals to back it up, these guys shouldn't be playing the lotto anytime soon.
None of the below 10 hitters produced a hard-hit rate below the league average. In fact, we had two players get to 40.0%, with one even getting above 50.0% without getting the results anybody would expect.
| Rank | Player | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mitch Moreland | .186 | 23.7% | 39.0% | 37.3% | 32.2% |
| 2 | Khris Davis | .226 | 23.3% | 38.3% | 38.3% | 38.3% |
| 3 | Justin Turner | .233 | 16.9% | 23.1% | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| 4 | Anthony Rizzo | .242 | 17.6% | 38.2% | 44.1% | 38.2% |
| 5 | Lucas Duda | .245 | 21.7% | 26.7% | 51.7% | 36.7% |
| 6 | Nelson Cruz | .246 | 20.3% | 29.7% | 50.0% | 51.6% |
| 7 | Edwin Encarnacion | .246 | 26.1% | 30.4% | 43.5% | 36.2% |
| 8 | Jordy Mercer | .250 | 22.4% | 43.3% | 34.3% | 37.3% |
| 9 | Miguel Cabrera | .268 | 21.6% | 43.2% | 35.1% | 36.5% |
| 10 | Brian Goodwin | .274 | 22.4% | 38.8% | 38.8% | 40.3% |
As if He Needs Help Getting Better
We've already talked about how good the Los Angeles Dodgers are, and how it's not fair that it seems like they're getting better. Third baseman Justin Turner has been a big reason behind all this success, which makes sense since he's slashing .355/.453/.539 through 339 plate appearances.
However, after having his best month of the year in June (220 wRC+ and .507 wOBA in 79 plate appearances) he came way back done to reality in the 94 plate appearances that followed (136 wRC+, .377 wOBA...which is still mighty fine). His hard-hit rate was still elite (45.0% in June) and his upside goes way up with his fly-ball rate that high, but the biggest difference between his month of July and the rest of the season was his line-drive rate.
Through June 30th, he posted a 28.2% line-drive rate with a .423 BABIP before watching those numbers go down to 16.9% and .233 in July, respectively. Is that a coincidence? I don't think so.
Talk About Frustrating
Nelson Cruz blasted seven home runs last month, which was his highest total since collecting the same number of dingers back in April. Understandably so, as his .250 ISO in July was also his highest mark since April. But outside of the power production, it was a frustrating stretch of time for the right-handed slugger.
He's definitely on the right track, though -- outside of his BABIP, his batted-ball profile hasn't looked better in any other month this year. When it comes to someone like Cruz, we always want him to hit the ball in the air, whether it's a line drive or fly ball. Moving forward, we'd much rather see his ground-ball rate stay around that 29.7% mark instead of the 45.2% rate he posted through the end of June.
Better Process, Worse Results
If there's one thing that's changed about Brian Goodwin since debuting in May, it's his power. After posting a .125 ISO through his first 25 plate appearances (with no homers), that number rose to .273 over the next two months (which includes 11 homers over 204 plate appearances). What's really interesting, though, is that outside of the homers, Goodwin's process at the plate improved in July compared to his big month of June, but the results were nowhere to be found.
Check out the comparison below that shows how his line-drive rate (LD%), ground-ball rate (GB%), fly-ball rate (FB%), hard-hit rate (Hard%), and wRC+ changed.
| Month | LD% | GB% | FB% | Hard% | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June | 14.8% | 37.7% | 47.5% | 29.5% | 139 |
| July | 22.4% | 38.8% | 38.8% | 40.3% | 87 |
That doesn't look right, especially considering his BABIP went from .327 in June to that .274 mark in July. There's still plenty of opportunity for him to play in the Washington Nationals outfield, and if he keeps this up, he's bound to see some good results at some point.
