MLB Team Power Rankings Update: The Seattle Mariners Are Still Being Aggressive
Teams Ranked 10th to 1st
If you're looking at the table below and thinking this order looks familiar, you're right -- our current top 10 is exactly the same as it was last week (outside of the Mariners dropping back a spot). So, since we don't have any teams actually switching seats here, we'll focus on clubs who have seen the biggest rise and fall in their playoff odds.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Boston Red Sox | 0.41 | 63-49 | 92.1% | 0 |
| 9 | St. Louis Cardinals | 0.58 | 56-56 | 29.4% | 0 |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.61 | 58-55 | 45.2% | 0 |
| 7 | Chicago Cubs | 0.75 | 59-52 | 80.9% | 0 |
| 6 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.80 | 63-48 | 89.9% | 0 |
| 5 | Cleveland Indians | 1.11 | 59-50 | 96.0% | 0 |
| 4 | Washington Nationals | 1.14 | 66-44 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 3 | New York Yankees | 1.32 | 59-51 | 89.2% | 0 |
| 2 | Houston Astros | 2.02 | 71-40 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 2.26 | 79-32 | 100.0% | 0 |
Biggest Rise: Boston Red Sox
One of the biggest issues with the Boston Red Sox this season has been their utter lack of power at the plate. Not having David Ortiz around definitely hurts, but it's like not they don't have hitters who can mash. Still, they entered the All-Star break with just 92 home runs (the fewest in the AL) and a team Isolated Power (ISO) of .151 (also the lowest in the AL).
Over their past 11 games, though, Boston has hit 17 home runs, which also includes five consecutive multi-homer performances. Manager John Farrell's club has posted an 8-3 record during this time, and when we couple that with ho-hum play from the New York Yankees, Boston has opened up a three-game lead in the AL East.
So, that's part of the reason why their playoff odds have jumped from 77.1% last week to their current 92.1% odds. Rookie outfielder Andrew Benintendi has been leading the way on offense over his last 18 plate appearances, too -- he owns a 268 wRC+ and .385 ISO during this time, all while walking twice as much (22.2%) as he's striking out (11.1%).
Biggest Drop: Chicago Cubs
Just when you think the Chicago Cubs were starting to pull away and the NL Central was starting to make sense again, they go 3-4 over their most recent seven games to keep things interesting within the division. Their playoff odds didn't drop a ton compared to last week (it was 84.7% then), but manager Joe Maddon and his club are making things much harder on themselves than they did in 2016.
If Chicago does want to keep control of the NL Central, their starting pitching must continue stepping up. Jon Lester (0.7 fWAR) and Jake Arrieta (0.5 fWAR) have done so in the second half, and we should throw Jose Quintana (0.3 fWAR) into this group as well -- before allowing six runs in five innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks in his last start, the southpaw had just a 2.88 SIERA since moving to the north side of town.
