5 MLB Pitchers Who Have Taken a Huge Step Back in 2017
Jeremy Jeffress, RP, Milwaukee Brewers
Just last year, Milwaukee Brewers reliever Jeremy Jeffress was sent to the Texas Rangers with Jonathan Lucroy in a non-waiver trade deadline deal that netted the Brew Crew with some interesting assets. And despite some off-field difficulties, Jeffress did have a solid year on the mound, which included a 3.49 SIERA, 17.4% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, and 27 saves.
Here we are just over a year later, though, and the Rangers traded Jeffress right back to Milwaukee -- who is in the thick of a playoff race -- for a lot less of a return because he's struggled quite a bit in 2017. He's on track to have an ERA (4.97) above 3.00 for the first time since 2012, and with a 4.77 SIERA, it's looking rather likely that it'll increase for the fourth consecutive season after putting together a career-best mark of 2.38 in 2013.
While he's actually induced soft contact more often this year (24.7%) than last year (22.0%), there are a lot of negative changes in his batted-ball profile. The below table compares his line-drive rate (LD%), ground-ball rate (GB%), fly-ball rate (FB%), pull rate (Pull%), and hard-hit rate (Hard%) between 2016 and 2017.
| Year | LD% | GB% | FB% | Pull% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23.6% | 60.3% | 16.1% | 32.8% | 17.5% |
| 2017 | 19.0% | 55.1% | 25.9% | 39.5% | 29.0% |
These numbers haven't been helped by a sinker that's drastically decreased in effectiveness, either -- after producing a 67.5% ground-ball rate and 82 wRC+ off the pitch last year, opposing hitters have improved those numbers to 57.0% and 174 this year, respectively. It's unlikely he'll get a nice raise via arbitration, but he at least has some time to rebuild his value before hitting the open market following the 2019 season.
