Fantasy Baseball: 5 Hitters Who Must Bounce Back After a Tough Second Half
Adam Duvall, OF, Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds' rebuilding process has been painful when looking at how bad their pitching staff has performed over the last two seasons, but they've at least found some solid offensive pieces to place around first baseman Joey Votto. One of those pieces is outfielder Adam Duvall.
Duvall's 2017 season marked his second consecutive campaign of 30-plus homers while he barely missed his second straight 100-RBI performance. From the standpoint of cumulative stats, he's still a force, but more advanced stats like wRC+ (98) and Offensive Runs Above Average (-1.8) show he took a step back from his breakout 2016 (105 and 4.5, respectively).
He was on pace for an even better year in the first half based off his 128 wRC+ and .278 ISO, but those numbers fell to 69 and .173, respectively, following the All-Star break. A drop in hard-hit rate (35.4% to 27.0%) didn't help, but he actually got more dependent on fly balls (45.7% to 52.4%), so it was still a little surprising that he fell off as much as he did, even though his performance on that batted-ball event got worse compared to 2016.
One big difference between the past two seasons was his performance against sliders and curveballs. Here's how his strikeout rate (K%), walk rate (BB%), OPS, ISO, and wRC+ on these offerings changed between 2016 and 2017.
| Pitch | BB% | K% | OPS | ISO | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs. Slider 2016 | 3.5% | 35.4% | .776 | .306 | 110 |
| vs. Slider 2017 | 1.4% | 38.7% | .625 | .193 | 67 |
| vs. Curveball 2016 | 3.2% | 24.2% | 1.018 | .441 | 174 |
| vs. Curveball 2017 | 1.6% | 28.6% | .578 | .169 | 57 |
After regressing so much against these pitches (the third- and fourth-most thrown pitches while he was in the batter's box), he must find a way to get closer to his 2016 levels of production again once Opening Day rolls around.
