Fantasy Baseball: 5 Pitchers Who Must Bounce Back After a Tough Second Half
Dan Straily, Miami Marlins
When looking at some of Dan Straily's peripherals, his first-half performance doesn't differ from his second-half performance for the Miami Marlins by all that much. We can't fight with the results, though -- the right-hander produced a 3.31 ERA with a .283 wOBA allowed prior to the All-Star break before watching those numbers regress hard to 5.51 and .385, respectively, following the midsummer classic.
While his strikeout rate (23.5% to 20.5%) and walk rate (7.0% to 8.7%) did both get worse when we split his 2017 season in half, it wouldn't be crazy to think that he was a little unlucky in that department. After all, his swinging-strike rate improved from 11.7% to 12.8% during this period of time, along with his chase rate (31.2% in the first half to 33.3% in the second half).
He did also watch his batted-ball profile get worse, though. The below table displays how his line-drive rate (LD%), ground-ball rate (GB%), fly-ball rate (FB%), and hard-hit rate (Hard%) compare before and after the All-Star break.
| 2017 | LD% | GB% | FB% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Half | 15.8% | 37.4% | 46.8% | 33.0% |
| Second Half | 24.7% | 30.5% | 44.9% | 32.1% |
A very low BABIP (.239) was something that stuck out from Straily's 2016 campaign. It was more of the same to start 2017, as his BABIP allowed settled in at .243 in the first half before ballooning all the way up to .340 after the midsummer classic.
With a career BABIP of .255 entering 2017, it's not crazy to think we should see that high second-half number come back down to what we've become accustomed to seeing from Straily. However, his batted-ball profile will likely also have to get back to normal for that to happen.
