Fantasy Baseball: 5 Pitchers Who Must Bounce Back After a Tough Second Half
Mike Leake, Seattle Mariners
There are a couple ways we should be looking at Mike Leake's season. After a stellar first half in which he produced a 3.12 ERA and .297 wOBA against in 107.2 innings of work exclusively for the St. Louis Cardinals, he struggled to a 5.07 ERA and .342 wOBA against in 76.1 second-half frames split between the Cardinals and Seattle Mariners.
That's not very good, but Leake can at least hang his hat on turning around his second half upon arriving in Seattle prior to the August 31st waiver trade deadline. The below table shows how his second half looks if we break his performance down by squad, including ERA, SIERA, strikeout rate (K%), walk rate (BB%), soft-hit rate (Soft%), hard-hit rate (Hard%), and BABIP.
| Second Half | IP | ERA | SIERA | K% | BB% | Soft% | Hard% | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 48 | 6.94 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 5.2% | 11.9% | 38.9% | .383 |
| Mariners | 32 | 2.53 | 3.53 | 21.1% | 1.6% | 19.6% | 33.0% | .323 |
These results represent two extremes, but it also shows what a pitcher like Leake needs to do in order to be successful.
With an average fastball velocity of 90 miles per hour over the past few years, Leake has never been much of a strikeout pitcher, evidenced by his career rate of 16.2%. Opposing hitters make contact over 80% of the time against him, so it's vital that he limits free passes and hard contact, two things he was able to do successfully in Seattle.
