Fantasy Baseball: The 20 Luckiest Starting Pitchers in 2017
Players Ranked 10th to 1st
As we get further toward the top of this list, there are a couple of similarities -- the cumulative strand rate is much closer to 80.0%, while only one pitcher produced a BABIP over .281.
| Rank | Player | IP | K% | BB% | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | SIERA | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Drew Pomeranz | 173.2 | 23.5% | 9.3% | .310 | 80.0% | 3.32 | 4.31 | -0.99 |
| 9 | Kyle Hendricks | 139.2 | 21.6% | 7.0% | .281 | 82.5% | 3.03 | 4.08 | -1.05 |
| 8 | Jose Urena | 154.1 | 15.9% | 9.3% | .242 | 77.5% | 3.97 | 5.23 | -1.26 |
| 7 | Ervin Santana | 211.1 | 19.3% | 7.1% | .245 | 79.5% | 3.28 | 4.60 | -1.32 |
| 6 | Parker Bridwell | 117.1 | 15.1% | 6.3% | .253 | 78.9% | 3.76 | 5.08 | -1.32 |
| 5 | Chase Anderson | 141.1 | 23.4% | 7.2% | .265 | 80.6% | 2.74 | 4.14 | -1.40 |
| 4 | Mike Clevinger | 114.0 | 27.1% | 11.6% | .269 | 80.4% | 2.84 | 4.24 | -1.40 |
| 3 | Lance Lynn | 186.1 | 19.7% | 10.1% | .244 | 79.0% | 3.43 | 4.85 | -1.42 |
| 2 | Gio Gonzalez | 201.0 | 22.7% | 9.6% | .258 | 81.6% | 2.96 | 4.41 | -1.45 |
| 1 | Andrew Cashner | 166.2 | 12.2% | 9.1% | .266 | 74.0% | 3.40 | 5.52 | -2.12 |
We Meet Again
If seeing Ervin Santana and Kyle Hendricks on this list seems familiar -- and come on, you know it is -- that's because they both took up real estate on this very same list following the 2016 season.
Once again, we can't just look at this list in absolutes. Some pitchers outperformed their peripherals in an alarming fashion, while others seem to be more sustainable. And in a few cases -- like Santana and Hendricks -- it appears to be the norm. So, it's worth the time to take the pitchers on these types of lists and dig a little deeper to find out the why they're here, since it could help uncover potentially undervalued assets.
These two hurlers are just about league average with regard to strikeout rate, but they are easily above average with regard to BABIP allowed and strand rate. They're also right next to one another when looking at soft-hit rate (22.5% for Hendricks and 22.3% for Santana), but the one big difference lies in their respective batted-ball profiles.
While Hendricks continues to rely heavily on generating ground balls (50.1% ground-ball rate in 2017), Santana is doing just the opposite as a fly-ball pitcher (42.5% fly-ball rate).
Limiting Hard Contact Better
Looking at Drew Pomeranz's performance with the Boston Red Sox between 2016 and 2017 is fascinating. He pitched to a 4.59 ERA in 68.2 innings after Boston acquired him from the San Diego Padres in 2016, but his 3.92 SIERA during this time was better than the one he produced this past year (4.31).
Part of that has to do with a declining strikeout rate (24.3% to 23.5%) and increasing walk rate (8.2% to 9.3%), but the southpaw outperformed his peripherals because he better controlled the quality of contact made off his pitches.
Opposing hitters posted a 37.4% fly-ball rate and 36.0% hard-hit rate against Pomeranz once he got to Boston in 2016, which led to 1.83 homers allowed per nine innings. His homers-per-nine rate dropped to 0.98 this season, as did his fly-ball rate (34.9%) and hard-hit rate (32.5%). He also laid off his cutter in favor of his four-seamer (55.0% pitch frequency) and continued to rely heavily on his curveball (37.0% pitch frequency), both of which helped generate the majority of his strikeouts.
Not Even Close at the Top
In all reality, this list just could've been Texas Rangers right-hander Andrew Cashner and then everyone else. He's the only hurler with 100-plus innings in 2017 to see his ERA settle in more than 1.50 runs below his SIERA, and he went a step further by outperforming it by more than two full runs.
Once able to flirt with triple digits, Cashner's average fastball velocity in 2017 settled in at just 93.4 MPH. That's still respectable, but it's clear how much it's impacted his performance on the mound. His 12.2% strikeout rate is a new single-season career-worst clip, while his 9.1% walk rate is also pretty close to that level. In addition to that, he allowed contact more than ever before (86.4%) but posted a BABIP allowed of just .266.
How did he do it? Like Pomeranz, he did a great job of inducing the right kind of contact from opposing hitters. His 48.6% ground-ball rate and 19.2% line-drive rate were his best marks since 2013, while his 28.4% hard-hit rate and 18.5% soft-hit rate were career-best marks in a year in which he tossed at least 100 frames.
