Fantasy Baseball: The 20 Unluckiest Pitchers in 2017
Players Ranked 20th to 11th
We've seen lists like this throughout the year include a wide range of pitchers, and our of end-of-the-year look isn't any different. What makes it interesting is that many have arrived here in a unique way.
The below 10 pitchers make up the bottom half of our top-20 unluckiest pitchers list.
| Rank | Player | IP | K% | BB% | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | SIERA | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Ian Kennedy | 154.0 | 20.0% | 9.3% | .257 | 68.2% | 5.38 | 4.88 | 0.50 |
| 19 | Dinelson Lamet | 114.1 | 28.7% | 11.1% | .261 | 69.2% | 4.57 | 4.03 | 0.54 |
| 18 | Jharel Cotton | 129.0 | 18.6% | 9.4% | .279 | 65.7% | 5.58 | 5.04 | 0.54 |
| 17 | Wade Miley | 157.1 | 19.5% | 12.8% | .332 | 71.4% | 5.61 | 5.07 | 0.54 |
| 16 | Chris Archer | 201.0 | 29.2% | 7.0% | .325 | 71.3% | 4.07 | 3.44 | 0.63 |
| 15 | Jason Hammel | 180.1 | 18.0% | 6.0% | .318 | 68.4% | 5.29 | 4.65 | 0.64 |
| 14 | Tim Adleman | 105.1 | 20.4% | 9.6% | .292 | 72.4% | 5.47 | 4.83 | 0.64 |
| 13 | Mike Fiers | 152.1 | 21.9% | 9.2% | .297 | 73.8% | 5.14 | 4.49 | 0.65 |
| 12 | Matt Moore | 172.1 | 18.8% | 8.6% | .321 | 66.8% | 5.59 | 4.87 | 0.72 |
| 11 | Clayton Richard | 197.1 | 17.6% | 6.9% | .351 | 70.6% | 4.79 | 4.06 | 0.73 |
An Encouraging Rookie Campaign
San Diego Padres right-hander Dinelson Lamet didn't make his MLB debut until May 25th against the New York Mets, but he certainly made an impression through his first 114.1 big-league frames. He completed six innings in just 10 of his 21 starts, but they all qualified as quality starts. And while he needs to get his walk rate under control, it's hard to look at that strikeout rate and not salivate for next season.
He was among the top-15 hurlers in strikeout rate when looking at those who threw at least 100 innings in 2017, checking in just a tick behind Jacob deGrom (28.9%) and a smidge ahead of two breakout performers in James Paxton (28.3%) and Jimmy Nelson (27.3%), along with Carlos Carrasco (28.3%). That's pretty good company.
A 43.1% fly-ball rate and 35.3% hard-hit rate isn't ideal, but pitching at Petco Park can help mask some of those struggles. Something he'll need to work on is getting more effective against left-handed hitters. He dominated righties to the tune of a 33.6% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate, but those numbers worsened to 24.1% and 13.8%, respectively, against lefties.
A Not-So-Encouraging Campaign
While we shouldn't put a lot of stock into just 29.1 innings, Oakland Athletics right-hander Jharel Cotton performed quite well in 2016, posting a 20.5% strikeout rate and 3.5% walk rate en route to a 2.15 ERA. Maybe the writing was on the wall, though, based on his .198 BABIP allowed and 4.02 SIERA. Whatever you want to believe, the 2017 season -- which was technically his rookie season -- didn't go well.
If we want to make a quick comparison, Cotton produced 0.7 fWAR in those 29.1 innings in 2016 but finished this past year at 0.0 fWAR despite throwing 129 innings. His strikeout rate (18.6%) decreased a bit, but his walk rate skyrocketed to 9.4%. He also allowed 1.95 homers per nine innings thanks to opposing hitters producing a 46.3% fly-ball rate and 31.3% hard-hit rate against him.
Cotton amped up the usage of his cutter to 22.2% this year after throwing it 16.6% of the time during that cup of coffee in the majors, but its effectiveness nosedived. After hitters struggled to a 49 wRC+ and 22.2% swinging-strike rate in their first looks at the offering, those numbers changed drastically to 152 and 12.8%, respectively, in 2017.
Archer Needs More Grounders Again
Throughout the first five years of Chris Archer's MLB career with the Tampa Bay Rays, his performance has been based on an ability to generate grounders. Heading into the 2017 season, he owned a career ground-ball rate of 46.7% with a BABIP allowed of .288. If we look at his full seasons (2013 to 2016), he never saw his ground-ball rate dip below 46.0% or his BABIP allowed climb above .296.
This year, his ground-ball rate was a career-low 42.0% while his BABIP allowed was a career-high .325. He still managed to produce an fWAR of 4.6, which would qualify as his second-best single-season performance since becoming a big leaguer. Archer got there partially because his strikeout rate (29.2%) and walk rate (7.0%) were both career bests when looking at when he became a full-time starter.
Inducing more grounders will help his ERA dip back below 4.00 for the first time since 2015, and finding a way to limit hard contact after allowing a career-high 39.1% rate (to go along with a career-low 13.2% soft-hit rate) won't hurt, either.
