Fantasy Baseball: The 25 Most Powerful Hitters Who Didn't Reach 30 Homers in 2017
Hitters Ranked 12th to 1st
As we move on to the top half of these arbitrary rankings, it's always interesting to see such a wide range of names pop up. There are many we shouldn't be surprised about, but then again, there are some others that just about nobody would've expect to see here back in April.
| Rank | Player | PA | BB% | K% | HR | R | RBI | ISO | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Trevor Story | 555 | 8.8% | 34.4% | 24 | 68 | 82 | .219 | .323 | 81 | 1.3 |
| 11 | Daniel Murphy | 593 | 8.8% | 13.0% | 23 | 94 | 93 | .221 | .385 | 136 | 4.3 |
| 10 | Yasiel Puig | 570 | 11.2% | 17.5% | 28 | 72 | 74 | .224 | .349 | 117 | 2.9 |
| 9 | Marwin Gonzalez | 515 | 9.5% | 19.2% | 23 | 67 | 90 | .226 | .382 | 144 | 4.1 |
| 8 | Matt Joyce | 544 | 12.1% | 20.8% | 25 | 78 | 68 | .230 | .343 | 116 | 2.4 |
| 7 | Anthony Rendon | 605 | 13.9% | 13.6% | 25 | 81 | 100 | .232 | .394 | 142 | 6.9 |
| 6 | Yonder Alonso | 521 | 13.1% | 22.6% | 28 | 72 | 67 | .235 | .366 | 132 | 2.4 |
| 5 | Curtis Granderson | 527 | 13.5% | 23.3% | 26 | 74 | 64 | .241 | .330 | 105 | 2.1 |
| 4 | Kris Bryant | 665 | 14.3% | 19.2% | 29 | 111 | 73 | .242 | .399 | 146 | 6.7 |
| 3 | Zack Cozart | 507 | 12.2% | 15.4% | 24 | 80 | 63 | .251 | .392 | 141 | 5.0 |
| 2 | Jose Ramirez | 645 | 8.1% | 10.7% | 29 | 107 | 83 | .265 | .396 | 148 | 6.6 |
| 1 | Freddie Freeman | 514 | 12.6% | 18.5% | 28 | 84 | 71 | .280 | .407 | 152 | 4.5 |
The Astros' X-Factor
The Houston Astros are World Series champions for a number of reasons, and one of the driving forces behind their dominant season was a relentless offense. And for a club that boasts some studs like Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, and George Springer, it was Marwin Gonzalez who basically came out of nowhere to be a crucial asset.
Of the qualified hitters on Houston's roster, Gonzalez's 144 wRC+ was second to only Altuve, while his 90 RBI was the best. These numbers are eye-popping in their own right, but that goes up a notch when realizing the switch-hitter posted just an 88 wRC+ with a 0.3 fWAR the year before. Fewer ground balls definitely helped (47.4% in '16, 43.9% in '17), but his plate discipline noticeably improved.
Known for being aggressive on pitches outside the strike zone, Gonzalez's 29.2% chase rate actually checked in just below the league average of 29.9% this year. Most of this shows up in a shifted approach on secondary pitches -- his chase rate on changeups (42.5% to 30.3%), sliders (43.2% to 34.1%), and curveballs (33.8% to 18.6%) all look dramatically different than the year prior.
Gonzalez's performance on fastballs also reaped the benefits, as his wRC+ on four-seamers went from 93 in 2016 all the way up to 187 in 2017.
Not Enough NL MVP Love
While fWAR shouldn't strictly be taken as gospel, here's an interesting nugget: Washington Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon finished with a 6.9 fWAR this year (nice). Only Jose Atluve (7.5) and Aaron Judge (8.2) finished higher than him. That 6.9 number also matched newly-crowned NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton.
Not only was Rendon not named a finalist, but he also finished sixth in voting, which just seems wrong. Could it have been a little different if he didn't slump through April, though?
For some guys, there's that "circle the date" game that turns their season around. For Rendon, it happened on April 30th against the New York Mets. In that 23-5 rout, he collected six hits -- including a double and 3 homers -- along with 5 runs scored and a whopping 10 RBI. Before that performance, he had struggled to an anemic 56 wRC+, .566 OPS, and .024 ISO (and only two extra-base hits in 95 plate appearances). After that performance, those numbers sky-rocketed to 150, .973, and .254, respectively (with 61 extra-base hits in 504 plate appearances).
A Tale of Two Halves
Heading into the All-Star break, first baseman Yonder Alonso was enjoying incredible success while also being the poster boy for MLB's fly-ball revolution. After never cracking double digits in the homer column for a single season (and his career high of 9 dingers coming all the way back in 2012), he ditched all the grounders for more balls in the air, and the results were dramatic.
Off the strength of a 30.2% ground-ball rate, 48.7% fly-ball rate, and 35.5% hard-hit rate, Alonso slugged 20 homers in a mere 298 first-half plate appearances. Although his hard-hit rate got even better in the second half (36.8%), he started hitting too many grounders again (38.9% ground-ball rate, 36.1% fly-ball rate), finishing with just 28 homers on the year.
A tremendous overall turnaround? You bet, but it was just disappointing when we see the trajectory he was on before cooling off. His stock in free agency has certainly transformed thanks to this breakout campaign, but it won't be as lucrative of a trip into free agency as he was initially hoping for.
