Fantasy Baseball: 9 Players That Are Being Overvalued
Zack Greinke - Arizona Diamondbacks (SP)
Arizona Diamondbacks ace Zack Greinke bounced back from an awful 2016 season (4.37 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 20.1% strikeout rate in 158.2 innings pitched) to once again throw lights-out baseball last year. He made 32 starts, cleared 200 innings (202.1), and posted a 3.20 ERA with a 3.31 fielding independent pitching (FIP), and a 26.8% strikeout rate, all in his age-33 season with a fastball that averaged 91.0 mph.
That velocity is about in line with what he had done in previous seasons, and our projections are bullish on him this year. We see him as the seventh-best pitcher in fantasy, only behind studs Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and Stephen Strasburg. However, fantasy drafters are a bit more skeptical. His current Average Draft Position (ADP) of 46.68 makes him the 14th pitcher taken off the board (including relievers).
Recent reports about Greinke's velocity raises some alarm bells. The 34-year-old has only topped out in the mid-80s in his last two spring starts, and Greinke himself is wondering if he's "lost it." He also said he has this fear most springs and that he usually bounces back.
Still, because of those velocity worries, there are a number of pitchers I'd select to be the ace of my fantasy staff ahead of Greinke, including many of the ones ahead of him in ADP, such as Robbie Ray, Yu Darvish, Chris Archer, Carlos Martinez, and Aaron Nola.
