Finding Betting Value in the Odds for the 2018 National League Cy Young Award
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Odds: 12/1
Slowly but surely, Aaron Nola has emerged as one of the best pitchers in the National League. The Philadelphia Phillies' ace has been incredible in 2018, with the third-highest fWAR (2.4) in the league, behind Scherzer and deGrom.
He has pitched 78.1 innings and has a 2.18 ERA that is third-lowest in the NL and a 2.62 FIP that is fourth-lowest. His strikeout rate is a bit lower this season (24.9%) than last (26.6%), but he's decreased his walk rate from 7.1% to 6.1% and opponents are hitting a microscopic .198 against him, leading to a 0.93 WHIP.
The biggest difference for Nola this year is his ability to get out left-handed hitters. Lefties are batting just .240/.283/.238 against him this campaign, light years better than last year's .255/.325/.415 clip. That's all thanks to an improved changeup, a pitch he's thrown 22.7% of the time, by far a career high.
Aaron Nola, Disgusting 85 mph Changeup. 🤮 pic.twitter.com/w2Tjx7gp8Z
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 9, 2018
It is that pitch that has catapulted him into being one of the elite starters in the NL.