3 MLB FanDuel Studs to Target on 6/21/18

Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs

Price: $4,100

With the Coors Field game happening in the afternoon today, oddsmakers don't seem to be accounting for a ton of offense on the main slate. But the Chicago Cubs still have a solid 5.21 implied total, nearly 0.4 runs clear of the Oakland Athletics at 4.82.

They draw a plus pitching matchup here against Cincinnati Reds righty Matt Harvey. Harvey hasn't opened 2018 looking quite as bad as he did last year, but his 4.57 SIERA is still not a flattering mark, and he's giving up way stronger contact than he ever has before. His 41.2% hard-hit rate is almost 10% higher than his previous career-worst (41.2%), while the 13.7% soft-hit rate he is forcing is his lowest since 2012's 10-game rookie campaign. He combines those marks with a 37.4% fly-ball rate, which is on pace to match his career-high.

Making the pitching matchup even better, Cincinnati relievers collectively have the eighth-worst xFIP among MLB bullpens.

Kris Bryant has been very productive this year, with a .375 wOBA, though his .200 isolated slugging (ISO) would suggest a drop in power. His previous career-low in the Majors was a .213, and he posted a .262 in 2016 and .242 in 2017.

This drop-off doesn't look to be of much concern, though. His 37.1% hard-hit rate is above his career-average (36.9%), and his soft-hit rate isn't up by much (sitting at 18.8%). Despite this, his 10.3% home run-to-fly-ball rate is by far a career-low, sitting well below the 15.8% he generated in his rookie season. A ton of variance goes into that, especially when he's still making his usual amount of hard contact, so we can expect his power numbers to improve moving forward, and in tasty matchups like this.