Fantasy Baseball: 5 Buy-Low Options for Season-Long Leagues
Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs
I don't want the hitters on this list to be only a bunch of low-BABIP guys, but an unlucky BABIP is at least part of the problem for Anthony Rizzo, too.
Raise your hand if you envisioned Rizzo having a down year in his age-29 season. There should be zero hands in the air.
Rizzo has been one of the most consistent players in baseball in recent seasons. With the Chicago Cubs' first baseman in his prime and locked into a juicy spot in a high-powered offense, there was no reason to think things would change in 2018. But they have.
| Season | Average | Homers | RBI | Strikeout Rate | Walk Rate | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | .258 | 23 | 80 | 18.4% | 11.0% | .325 |
| 2014 | .311 | 32 | 78 | 18.8% | 11.9% | .397 |
| 2015 | .289 | 31 | 101 | 15.0% | 11.1% | .384 |
| 2016 | .309 | 32 | 109 | 16.0% | 10.9% | .391 |
| 2017 | .273 | 32 | 109 | 13.0% | 13.2% | .380 |
| 2018 | .246 | 12 | 61 | 12.4% | 9.9% | .323 |
There's a couple things to note on the above table. One, man, Rizzo has been so consistently good for the Cubs. And two, he sure has fallen off this season.
But there are reasons to be optimistic about a turnaround.
Rizzo's .249 BABIP is a career-low clip while also being much worse than the league average (.295). Not that there's ever a good year for a hitter to be punished by the BABIP gods, but this is a particularly bad one for it to happen to Rizzo, as he's putting the ball in play way more than usual with a career-low strikeout rate (12.4%) and five-year-low walk rate (9.9%).
On the bright side, Rizzo's batted-ball profile (31.8% hard-hit rate and 36.6% fly-ball rate) isn't that far off from his career numbers (33.0% hard-hit rate and 39.5% fly-ball rate).
The killer for Rizzo's overall line is a horrendous first month in which he posted a .219 wOBA with a 17.6% strikeout rate and 4.7% walk rate in addition to some woeful overall numbers on the road, highlighted by a .298 wOBA. He rebounded from the putrid start with a .408 wOBA in May, and Rizzo's career wOBA away from home is a strong .347, so 2018's road struggles could be nothing more than random variance.
We all bow at the feet of stats and numbers-based arguments, but put those aside for a second. Let's use some common sense -- unless Rizzo is playing injured, he's almost bound to start performing better, because it's highly unlikely a player of his caliber just all of the sudden got this much worse in his prime.
Rizzo was the 25th overall player off the board this spring, per NFBC, but he currently sits -- cover your eyes -- 108th among hitters in ESPN's Player Rater. His owners have to be bummed, and breaking things might be a reasonable response at this point. Now is a great time to pursue Rizzo before he picks it up, though. He's especially valuable on Yahoo!, where he's eligible at second base, which just feels like cheating.
