Fantasy Baseball: 10 Hitters Who Could Bounce Back in 2019

Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 73
Depth Charts: 651 PA, 91 R, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 3 SB, .278 AVG
THE BAT: 658 PA, 92 R, 22 HR, 82 RBI, 4 SB, .288 AVG

One of the top hitters in recent memory by a number of statistical measures, including a superb career 155 wRC+, Joey Votto looked about as safe as they come as a second-round investment in 2018 even entering his age-34 season,

Votto was coming off a stellar 2017 campaign in which he hit .320 with 106 runs, 36 home runs and 100 RBI, while posting a career-best 11.7% strikeout rate and league-best 19.0% walk rate. Expanding the sample over the last three seasons, and he came into 2018 averaging 100.7 runs, 31.3 home runs, 92.3 RBI and 8.0 stolen bases with a .320/.449/.557 slash line.

Barring injury, what could possibly go wrong?

Well, Votto did mostly stay healthy in 2018 (623 plate appearances), but the results were anything but the norm. He slugged only 12 home runs, the first time he failed to hit at least 24 jacks in a season in which he accumulated over 500 plate appearances, and he similarly lagged behind in both runs and RBI with just 67 apiece. Even his .284 average, which many hitters would kill for nowadays, was Votto's second-lowest of his career.

With Votto now 35 years old, it would be easy to assume he is simply slowing down and call it day, but there are some positive signs that he may have deserved better last year.

For starters, he remained an on-base machine (.417 OBP), with his trademark plate discipline on full display, posting a 16.2% strikeout rate and 17.3% walk rate -- both of which were better than his career averages. And in a "down" year, his .370 wOBA was nothing to sneeze at, either.

Furthermore, the lack of power in particular seems flukey, as his 9.5% home-run-to-fly-ball rate (HR/FB) was well below his career rate (18.3%) despite posting otherwise encouraging batted ball numbers. With the caveat that hard-hit rate was up across the board last year (35.3% league average), so gains in that department may need to be taken with a grain of salt, Votto produced a 41.0% hard-hit rate that ranked within the top-40 qualified bats.

And while it's true his fly-ball rate dipped (31.1%), that had more to do with him trading them in for more line drives, as he also posted his lowest ground-ball rate (37.5%) since his MLB debut in 2007. He's still hitting the ball in the air plenty, and that lower fly-ball rate isn't far off from what he's done over his career (33.3%).

All that being said, from a Statcast perspective, Votto saw a notable drop in barrels, producing just a 6.7% barrel rate after averaging over 9.0% in each of the prior three seasons. Barrels are naturally strongly correlated with power, and Votto has never been a big exit velocity guy to begin with, so while a minor bounce back in home runs should be expected, we probably shouldn't hold out hope for another 30 dingers.

However, getting back over 20 is a reasonable expectation -- particularly in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park -- and both projection systems reflect that, pegging him for 22 home runs. With a rebound in power, his still elite on-base contributions, and usual high batting slot, the runs and RBI should climb back up, as well. Even if Votto "just" hits around .280 again, as the projections suggest, that would still be a big advantage -- the league average in 2018 was just .248.

Votto is now going safely outside the top-50 players in early drafts, and although he's probably not going to blow us away in any one category except perhaps batting average (or OBP if your league uses that), this looks like a solid discount on a four-category contributor. He may have more left in the tank than some realize.