Fantasy Baseball: 7 Starting Pitchers Who Could Bounce Back in 2019

Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 120
Steamer: 176 IP, 221 K, 11 W, 3.68 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
THE BAT: 176 IP, 224 K, 10 W, 3.82 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Following a breakout 2017 campaign in which he posted a 2.89 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 218 strikeouts, Robbie Ray had some clear red flags that suggested he would regress. But many couldn't resist the allure of that stat line, and Ray had an ADP inside the top 50 overall of 2018 NFBC drafts.

It wasn't a total disaster, but regression came in the form of a 3.93 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 2018, and an oblique injury helped limit him to just 123 2/3 innings and 24 starts, leading to just 165 strikeouts.

Although Ray still maintained his elite strikeout rate (31.4%), his walk rate ballooned to a career-worst level (13.3%). He also continued to struggle with hard contact, allowing a 44.4% hard-hit rate that ranked as the third-worst among pitchers with at least 120 innings. It's perhaps no surprise that his home run woes remained, as well, as he gave up 1.38 home runs per nine innings off a 17.4% homer-per-fly-ball rate (HR/FB) -- his third straight season with a HR/FB rate of more than 15%.

Despite all that, it's hard to quit a guy with a strikeout rate around 30%, and even more so when he's going safely outside the top 100 picks. Among hurlers who logged 120 or more innings in 2018, only 10 cracked a 30% strikeout rate and just two more exceeded 29%. With better health, Ray should have no problem reaching 200 strikeouts as he did in 2017 and 2016 -- something just 18 guys achieved last year.

Ray was always unlikely to repeat 2017's sub-3.00 ERA -- largely a byproduct of a fortuitous .267 BABIP -- but even an ERA in the high-3.00s again would suffice, which is backed up by last year's 3.89 SIERA. He'll probably never have a pretty walk rate, but even a drop to his career average (10.3%) would be a sizable improvement and help him from being a total liability in WHIP. And while Ray actually performed worse at home last year, Chase Field's humidor should also help him over the long haul.

It's pretty clear now that Ray was a bit overpriced in drafts last year, and considering the high walk rate and hard contact issues, he's probably not someone who's going to give much ratio help again anytime soon. But 200 strikeouts don't grow on trees, and at this price, it could be worth jumping back on the wagon this season.