Fantasy Baseball: 3 Early-Round Bust Candidates

Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox

NFBC ADP: 14

Currently the third starting pitcher off the board, Chris Sale was limited to 158 innings in 2018 thanks to a variety of injuries. Over those 27 starts, he still pitched some brilliant innings, turning in a 2.11 ERA, 38.4% strikeout rate, and mere 5.5% walk rate.

The most concerning part about Sale, though, is his massive decline in fastball velocity upon his return (courtesy of Brooks Baseball):

Sale's velocity jumped up to over 98 miles-per-hour (MPH) in August, but flattened out around by five to six MPH when he returned down the stretch. It follows that Sale's season-long hard-hit rate was 26.5%, but it then jumped to 31.0% in the months of September and October.

If Sale is healthy, he's a boss. Only once in the last five years has he averaged fewer than 10.76 strikeouts per nine innings.

After dealing with the shoulder injury, he has returned to the mound since, but this is certainly a situation to watch, especially at the lefty's high draft cost. Proceed with caution.