Who Should You Draft Third Overall in Fantasy Baseball?
Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Indians
NFBC ADP: 3rd
Maximum Pick: 3rd
Minimum Pick: 8th
Part of the two-headed monster expected to lead the Cleveland offense this season, Ramirez is now tasked with flying solo sans Lindor, albeit for what's expected to be a short time.
If it goes anything like either of the last two seasons, J-Ram should be up to the challenge. A year ago, in his third consecutive season with 600-plus plate appearances, Ramirez mashed and ran his way to 39 homers, 34 steals, 110 runs and 105 RBIs. Ooh child.
And if you play in a league that values walks, it makes him even more valuable. Ramirez's walk rate (15.2%) exceeded his strikeout rate (11.5%) in 2018, and he finished with the sixth-best wOBA in all of baseball (.391).
So why isn't he the overwhelming choice at number-three? A scary second half has some folks a bit scared off.
Split | PAs | HRs | PA per HR | AVG | wOBA | wRC+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First Half | 419 | 29 | 14.4 | .302 | .426 | 170 |
Second Half | 279 | 10 | 27.9 | .218 | .339 | 110 |
Ramirez was always going to have a tough time maintaining that torrid first-half pace for the duration of the campaign, but the drop-off was quite steep. And it was rooted in a real struggle against breaking pitches.
Jose Ramirez against breaking pitches in 2018 (per Brooks Baseball):
Sliders (482 pitches) - .159 AVG, .365 SLG
Curveballs (378 pitches) - .204 AVG, .333 SLG
From Aug. 1 on:
Sliders (162) - .083 AVG, .208 SLG
Curves (130) - .115 AVG, .231 SLG
— Clay Link (@claywlink) February 14, 2019
All of that said, Ramirez's second-half didn't suddenly morph him into Freddy Galvis -- he just wasn't Superman. He was, however, well above league average in wOBA (.315) and wRC+ (97), so while it was a disappointing final two-and-a-half-month stretch compared to the opening half of the year, it didn't cost you a championship.
Locked into an everyday role as a switch-hitter and going into his age-27 season, Ramirez offers a high floor for counting stats, is superb in OBP-friendly formats, may be eligible at second base (depending on your league rules) and contributes well in pretty much every single offensive category. He's firmly in play with the third pick.